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September 24, 2007 - Vol. 9, Issue 4

AGREEMENT WITH ABBAS, CEASE-FIRE WITH HAMAS; DIVIDING JERUSALEM; UPHOLDING THE LAW; WINDS OF WAR; THE DEVIL YOU KNOW

AGREEMENT WITH ABBAS, CEASE-FIRE WITH HAMAS: Thirteen of Israel's most prominent intellectuals published a petition today calling on Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to negotiate a cease-fire with Hamas. The signatories of the petition include Amos Oz, A.B. Yehoshua, David Grossman, Meir Shalev, and Eli Amir.

The petition, titled "Agreement with Abu Mazen, negotiations for a cease-fire with Hamas," reads: "We believe an opportunity to promote the peace process ahead of the international conference in November has been created. We urge the prime minister to make a supreme effort to reach substantial agreements with the PLO chairman [Mahmoud Abbas] and not to squander the opportunity."

The petition continues: "The continued Kassam rocket fire from the Gaza Strip is intolerable. Israel has negotiated in the past with its worst enemies, and now too it is negotiating with Hamas, rightfully, in order to bring [captive IDF Sergeant] Gilad Shalit home. These negotiations must also include an attempt to achieve a comprehensive cease-fire without preconditions. The end of reciprocal attacks will provide security to the residents of the western Negev, will prevent additional suffering among Gaza residents, and will increase the chances of success for the political process."

Asked what impact he believes the petition will have, novelist A.B. Yehoshua said: "Only reality will show how significant this petition will be." (Geneva Initiative, 9/24/07; Ha'aretz, 9/24/07; Yedioth Ahronoth, 9/24/07)

DIVIDING JERUSALEM: Israel's Vice Premier Haim Ramon detailed his proposal for Jerusalem's future on Tuesday, acknowledging that he believes Israel should cede control of Arab neighborhoods in Jerusalem. In a letter to Nir Barkat, the Kadima party's nominee for the Jerusalem mayoral race, Ramon wrote that the "Jewish neighborhoods will be recognized as Israeli and under Israeli sovereignty. Accordingly, the Arab neighborhoods will be recognized as Palestinian. Passages between the Israeli neighborhoods will be open and secure - accordingly the same will be true for the Palestinian neighborhoods." Ramon added that there "will be special sovereignty over the holy sites, taking into account Israel's unique interests in overseeing them. Within this framework the Western Wall, the Jewish Quarter and other holy sites in the Jerusalem vicinity will remain under Israeli rule forever." Critics noticed that Ramon did not explicitly include the Temple Mount in this list of holy sites.

Ramon, whose statements were seen by some journalists as a trial balloon which Prime Minister Ehud Olmert may follow, added that "Kadima has raised the banner of a democratic and Jewish Israel with a solid Jewish majority. It is based on this belief that the prime minister is negotiating with [Palestinian Authority] President Abbas." A similar, demographic rationale was expressed at the inauguration of a new Kadima Party branch on Wednesday by Knesset Member Menahem Ben-Sasson, who spoke about the importance of maintaining a Jewish majority in the city.

Nevertheless, Ramon's vision is fueling a counter movement inside Kadima led by Knesset Member Otniel Schneller, a former leader of the settlement movement. Ha'aretz correspondent Nadav Shragai reports that "Schneller is unwilling to give up Israeli sovereignty over the Old City and the Temple Mount, but will accept religious management of the holy sites. He is also willing to give up neighborhoods on the outskirts of the city - mostly to the north, such as Al-Ram, Qalandiyah and Kafr Akeb (most of which are already outside the separation fence) - as well as parts of a few other neighborhoods." Schneller also reportedly demands that space be allocated on the Temple Mount for Jewish prayer.

This episode may reveal a great deal about the degree to which Israel's largest party is ready to compromise on the concept of an undivided Jerusalem. "No one in Kadima is asking whether Jerusalem will be re-divided," observes Shragai. "The battle inside Kadima over whether Jerusalem will be divided has already been decided. The question now is how - and also whether the party, as Ramon has, will call the spade a spade: division."(Ynet, 9/18/07; Jerusalem Post, 9/19 & 9/20/07; Ma'ariv, 9/20/07; Ha'aretz, 9/21/07)

UPHOLDING THE LAW: Peace Now petitioned the Israeli High Court of Justice on Tuesday requesting an injunction ordering Defense Minister Ehud Barak and General Gadi Shamni, commander of IDF forces in the West Bank, to act on existing demolition orders issued against 6 settlement outposts in the west Bank. The outposts were constructed in violation of Israeli law and, in part, on privately-owned Palestinian land.

This petition follows a commitment made by the Defense Ministry regarding these sites at the conclusion of a previous round of litigation. That court battle ended in June 2006, when - following the Defense Minister's promise of upcoming action - the High Court rejected Peace Now's petition. In their ruling, the justices added that should the outposts not be removed within a reasonable amount of time, Peace Now should re-appeal the courts on this matter.

Despite standing orders against continued construction at the sites, permanent structures continue to be built, mobile homes continue to be added and roads continue to be paved. The outposts named in this petition include Mitzpe Lachish, Giv'at Asaf, Giv'at Hadegel, Ma'ale Rehav'am, Giv'at Yitzhar, and Haro'e. (PeaceNow.org.il, 9/23/07; Ma'ariv NRG, 9/18/07)

WINDS OF WAR: Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Syrian President Bashar Assad both expressed willingness to resume negotiations this week, even in the wake of an alleged Israeli strike within Syria earlier this month. "I have a good deal of respect for the Syrian leader and for Syrian policy," Olmert told reporters Monday. He added that Israel has "no reason to rule out dialogue with Syria. If conditions ripen, we are ready to make peace with Syria, with no preconditions and no ultimate demands." Two days later, Assad said that "there is no way to reach stability in the region without devoting [ourselves] seriously and determinedly to the peace process and to reaching an arrangement." The Syrian president was speaking to a visiting delegation of British Members of Parliament.

Professor Eyal Zisser, director of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, observed that "the fact that the Syrians are keeping a low profile, and Israel is also behaving with a great deal of moderation, shows the strong desire of both sides to avoid war. Hence, the option of peace, as far as I understand it, is still on the table." But Alon Liel, former director general of the Israeli Foreign Ministry and a strong advocate of Israeli-Syrian negotiations, was far more skeptical that negotiations can begin. He told Ma'ariv that Syria was unwilling to turn back on its allegiance with Iran without an American willingness to warm relations. The Israeli attack, explained Liel, made "Assad dig in his heels in even harder. The resumption of negotiations is possible only if Israel says, 'The Syrians held back, proving that they do not desire war, so let's start talking, even without the Americans.'" Liel said that in this case, Assad will have a severe problem. "He could be left without an international patron, without America or Iran. Therefore, if the chances of resuming negotiations before the crisis were small, today they are infinitesimal."

It is still uncertain whether Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's statement Sunday suggests a renewed willingness on the part of the Bush Administration to support Israeli-Syrian peace negotiation. In a press conference, Rice expressed "hope that the participants would include the members of the Arab Follow-up Committee," a committee that includes Syria.

With this diplomatic context, both the Syrian and the Israel militaries are reportedly on a heightened state of alert. Israeli jets were reportedly scrambled on Sunday to respond to what was said to be a low-flying Syrian plane that crashed in Syrian territory. (Yedioth Ahronoth, 9/20/07; JTA, 9/18; Ma'ariv, 9/20/07; Ha'aretz, 9/23/07; State.gov, 9/23/07)

THE DEVIL YOU KNOW: Responding to the suggestion that Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime should be toppled, Dr. Guy Bechor - who heads the Middle East Department at the Interdisciplinary Center, one of Israel's top private universities - responds with an Arab proverb: "Calculate your losses before calculating your profits. When the two options are compared, it is rather clear that the harm caused by the Assad family is less severe than the harm that could be caused by its opponents. Syria is currently a stable state with a clear address, with a (relatively weak) regular army and well-defined rules. It is much easier for the IDF to fight a state rather than an amorphous organization such as Hezbollah. We are better off with a Syrian army than with entrenched fighters who lack any state responsibility. We are better off with the Syrian stability than Iraqization, an Islamic caliphate, a stronger al-Qaida and great instability in the Golan, in Lebanon and in the region as a whole."

Mossad veteran Gad Shimron writes that "anybody who has forgotten what an army in crisis looks like, an army that is mired in budgetary problems, poor maintenance and spare parts, is invited to look at the images of the Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon in the aftermath of the assassination of Rafik Hariri, the former Lebanese prime minister: outdated models of beat up old trucks, artillery guns that have to be towed and soldiers that are sloppily dressed." Noting that Russian President Vladimir Putin recently renewed weapons supplies to Syria, Shimron observes "a very interesting phenomenon: offensive weapons, such as tanks, were not included in the arms shipment, and the Syrian army was forced to make do with old T-72 tanks, only a small part of which were upgraded with Italian electronic equipment. The Syrian Air Force is equipped with old planes. Five (other sources speak of eight) new Mig 31s that were recently purchased do not change the balance of power, and probably do not keep the IDF commanders sleepless at night. The same is true of the Iranian-made shore to sea missile."

"So what is the conclusion?" asks Shimron, "That Syria is merely a frightened lamb? Not exactly. It nevertheless is a dictatorship, an ally of Iran, a supporter of Hezbollah where the decisions are made in the small space between Assad Junior's two ears. But all the frightening descriptions of a threatening armament process are an overstatement." (Yedioth Ahronoth, 9/20/07; Ma'ariv, 9/18/07)

HOSTILE TERRITORY: The decision by Israel's Security Cabinet to label the Gaza Strip "hostile territory" on Wednesday sparked a great deal of debate in Israel, where it was seen by many as a stalling tactic that could delay the need for a large scale Israeli military action in Gaza. A senior Israeli defense official told the Jerusalem Post that the "first step is to weaken Hamas's ability to govern." The official added that "if that doesn't work, then the second stage will be to weaken Hamas physically."

The decision stipulates that, following legal examination, "additional sanctions will be placed on the Hamas regime in order to restrict the passage of various goods to the Gaza Strip and reduce the supply of fuel and electricity. Restrictions will also be placed on the movement of people to and from the Gaza Strip." The decision was reportedly made over the opposition of Deputy Defense Minister Matan Vilnai who argued that it would likely result in an increase of rocket attacks.

After noting the imperative that Israel has to respond to the rocket fire onto Israel from Gaza, Amir Rappaport writes in Ma'ariv that "the big question is whether the economic measures will be effective in stopping the Kassam rockets. And this is very doubtful. Moreover, it seems that the answer to the question is no. Distress and shortages will only increase the anger against Israel. So why do it at all? Largely, the attempt to stop the rocket fire economically proves how much Israel is willing to try anything in order to avoid a large-scale ground operation in Gaza, which would claim casualties and not necessarily ensure an end to the rocket fire."

Legal analysis was provided by Judge Boaz Okon - a former district court judge in Israel - who writes in Yedioth Ahronoth that "verbal definitions cannot change reality. Israel effectively controls the crossings to Gaza and the supply of power, water and food to it, and therefore it cannot be argued that Gaza is independent territory and that the civilian population living there can be punished as part of the war against Hamas. It would appear that the resolution is not backed by a firm legal position, but rather by a 'you too' argument: Since you also harm civilians, your civilians can also be harmed, and since military action would endanger more people, less harmful action can be taken. This is a practical argument, and even if it is not legally acceptable, it could win by virtue of the facts. But this kind of argument exacts a moral toll, since it disregards Israel's responsibility for the situation in Gaza, in a manner that will yet make us ask ourselves how we treated people the way we did, and how we harmed whom we harmed."

In the Jerusalem Post, Khaled Abu Toameh writes that it is "hard to see how the Israeli decision to declare the Gaza Strip 'hostile territory' could undermine Hamas. In fact, the move is likely to backfire, rallying more Palestinians around Hamas and other radical groups." Abu Toameh predicts that depriving "Palestinians of water and electricity will not turn them against Hamas. Instead, they will vent their frustration and despair against Israel and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and his Fatah faction." (PMO.gov.il, 9/19/07; Ma'ariv, 9/20/07; Yedioth Ahronoth, 9/20/07; Jerusalem Post, 9/19 & 9/20/07)