The polls cited today in the Associated Press story (and carried by Haaretz, JTA and others) which allegedly found that most Israelis back continued settlement construction, were commissioned by a far-right Israeli organization and by the settlers' University of Ariel. The questions - surprise, surprise - are skewed accordingly.
Unfortunately, AP neglected to mention who commissioned the poll and neglected to quote the actual questions.
So, first: Who commissioned it? According to the press release that the Israeli polling firm Maagar Mochot sent out Thursday night, upon which AP based its story, the chief poll cited in the story was commissioned by IMRA (Independent Media Review Analysis), an organization run by Aaron Lerner, who has never been shy about his extreme right views. He has published them in numerous op eds. The other poll was commissioned by the College of Ariel, the settlers' academic bastion, located in the settlement of Ariel, near Nablus.
Second, the questions. All of them would not pass the test of a serious statistician. Question number one, for example, asks: "Should Netanyahu agree to President Obama's demand of a complete construction freeze beyond the Green Line - including in Jerusalem and settlement blocs - including 'natural growth'?" Attention: the question talks about "Jerusalem," not "East Jerusalem." Question number 2: "Is President Obama's demand of a construction halt truly a 'make or break' issue for the United States or if Netanyahu holds his ground there really won't be a crisis?" Excuse me, what kind of an either-or question is that? It goes on and on. See for yourself.
APN has contacted the Associated Press with a request to correct the record. We were promised that the matter will be looked into.
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Thanks for this, Ori, it very much allays my concerns about this poll. Though I still think we need to really track better how much Israeli opinion has shifted over recent years, with a general shift to the right and the increase in immigrants from the former Soviet states and in the orthodox population...
The poll you previously quoted claiming that there was a majority for a settlement freeze was a biased poll designed to get the results the Left wanted. The J-Street polls are so distorted it isn't even funny. The question are very long and convoluted and always end with a statement "I support a strong Israel which means I want what J-Street wants".
In any event Dr Bernard Avishai at his blog points out that the results of the earlier poll that you were trumpeting did NOT show majority support for a settlement freeze in the sense that you mean by it.
If Netanyahu refused to make a settlement freeze and stand up to Obama's demands, he will have a solid national consensus behind him.
How stupid to have asked in the poll about "construction freeze" in "Jerusalem and settlements", instead of "settlements's freeze" in "East-Jerusalem, except the Jewish quarter in the Old City and the Western Wall"...
So, 56 % of Israelis support continued settlement construction ?
First of all, please notice that this is not a large majority.
Secondly, these Israelis may just want to express their disapproval of a return to the Green Line. Did the poll offer them questions that can help to distinguish 1) Israelis who actually back new settlements and/or settlements'growth, and 2) Israelis who refuse to be under a threat because of the pre-1967 undefendable boarders ?
The talks during the making of the 242 UNO resolution (the original resolution is in English, the other -french, etc...- are translations) show their point of view isn't illegal, as long as a Palestinian viable state can be created.
Nicolas-
Keep in mind that something like 20% of those responding are Israeli Arabs, so the Jewish majority opposed to a freeze is actually much larger.
A poll out today by Institute for National Security Studies, a Tel Aviv University think tank, finds that 83% of Jewish Israelis oppose construction in settlements if their expansion would result in a confrontation with the United States.
Check it out at http://www.inss.org.il/publications.php?cat=21&incat=&read=2990
Y. Ben David, please note that the IMRA poll only questioned Israeli Jews.
Then what do you make of this finding in the same poll you quoted?
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only 10 percent support the evacuation of all the settlements, 42 percent are willing to evacuate the small and isolated settlements – all told 52 percent, while 48 percent oppose evacuation of settlements under any circumstances.
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Thus we see massive support for the existence of the settlements. This seems to contradict the factum you brought about 83% opposing construction if it annoys the US. If the Israeli gov't shows leadership and continues building as it has in the past, there should be no problem.