Tomorrow marks the beginning of the first direct Israeli-Palestinian talks since President Barack Obama took office.
There are good reasons to be skeptical that these talks will succeed, and the reasons for skepticism are clear: the readiness and ability of both Israeli and Palestinian leaders to deliver their respective sides of a peace agreement is in doubt; President Obama has yet to demonstrate the kind of hands-on, "I-will-not-let-this-fail" engagement that will be necessary for talks to succeed; and of course, spoilers will be out in force, seeking through actions and words to provoke hatred and anger, to undermine trust, and, if possible, to destroy this new peace process.
That said, there are also reasons to be hopeful that these talks can succeed. With most attention these days focused on the reasons for skepticism, we think this is an important time to look seriously at these reasons for hope.
There are good reasons to be skeptical that these talks will succeed, and the reasons for skepticism are clear: the readiness and ability of both Israeli and Palestinian leaders to deliver their respective sides of a peace agreement is in doubt; President Obama has yet to demonstrate the kind of hands-on, "I-will-not-let-this-fail" engagement that will be necessary for talks to succeed; and of course, spoilers will be out in force, seeking through actions and words to provoke hatred and anger, to undermine trust, and, if possible, to destroy this new peace process.
That said, there are also reasons to be hopeful that these talks can succeed. With most attention these days focused on the reasons for skepticism, we think this is an important time to look seriously at these reasons for hope.
Reason for hope #1: It is undeniably significant that Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu is coming to these talks at all. Netanyahu is a
hard-line Likudnik who has previously been dead-set against the
two-state solution. Moreover, he leads the farthest right-wing
government in Israeli history, where, when it comes to peace issues,
compared to some of his coalition partners he can look like a real
lefty. The fact that Netanyahu has come this far gives hope that change
is possible, and that he may yet go farther in order to make peace.
Reason for hope #2: There is some truth to the argument that a right-wing government may be better-placed to "sell" hard choices to Israelis. This was the case with the Israel-Egypt peace agreement, and it was the case with Israel's "disengagement" from Gaza.
Reason for hope #3: The Netanyahu government is stable, notwithstanding analysts who argued that it could not survive the imposition of the settlement moratorium. It remains stable today, given that all the parties in the government have their own vested interests in keeping hold of power, and given their knowledge that if the government collapses over peace talks, there is Kadima waiting in the wings to join Netanyahu.
Reason for hope #4: Prime Minister Netanyahu has apparently given strong assurances to President Obama that he is serious about peace talks and about peace, and Obama is relying on these assurances. The commitment of an Israeli prime minister to an American president is no small thing. Netanyahu will be under tremendous pressure to live up to it.
Reason for hope #5: The imposition of the soon-to-end 10-month settlement moratorium resulted in neither the collapse of the Israeli government nor widespread protests in Israel (despite the best efforts of the settlers and their supporters). This experience bolsters the argument that there is no reason why the settlement moratorium cannot be continued, indefinitely. Moreover, in the wake of the March 2010 Jerusalem settlement debacle during Vice President Biden's visit, provocative Israeli actions in East Jerusalem have in large part ceased, demonstrating again that this can be done if there is political will to do so.
Reason for hope #6: The Palestinian Authority is today led by President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Salam Fayyad - two men who have demonstrated their commitment to non-violence, negotiations, and peace, and under whose watch the security situation in the West Bank has improved substantially. They are respected by the US and recognized by Israel and the world as serious partners for peace. And it is hoped that if peace talks show real progress, their strength and credibility in the Palestinian domestic political arena will rise, enabling them to unite the Palestinian polity.
Reason for hope #7: The fact that the Palestinians agreed, under pressure from the US, to come to direct talks despite understandable misgivings puts the onus on the US to make sure Abbas is not undermined by what happens once talks start.
Reason for hope #8: The Palestinian Authority has demonstrated already, during proximity talks, that it is taking the peace effort seriously. The Palestinians have a professional, competent team in place, and have already demonstrated seriousness by putting concrete proposals on the table.
Reason for hope #9: The Arab League has endorsed the talks. Key Arab leaders - President Mubarak of Egypt and King Abdullah of Jordan - are directly involved from the outset. If the Arab world sees that the Obama Administration is serious and effective as the process moves forward, this involvement and support can grow.
Reason for hope #10: President Obama hasn't given up. Many suggested that with midterm elections nearing, he would abandon his peace effort. He didn't, and rumor has it that with the launching of these new peace talks, President Obama will become personally engaged in his Middle East peace policy, ready to "own" the issue and ensure his policy's success. There are hints that he is prepared to invest the political capital necessary to keep these talks on track and on-target and to engage with the kind of serious leadership necessary to prevent actions by either party that threaten the viability of the negotiations themselves.
Reason for hope (bonus): Polls continue to show that Israelis and Palestinians support the two-state solution and support negotiations to achieve a peace agreement. Recent polling also shows that Arabs from across the Middle East support the two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Reason for hope #2: There is some truth to the argument that a right-wing government may be better-placed to "sell" hard choices to Israelis. This was the case with the Israel-Egypt peace agreement, and it was the case with Israel's "disengagement" from Gaza.
Reason for hope #3: The Netanyahu government is stable, notwithstanding analysts who argued that it could not survive the imposition of the settlement moratorium. It remains stable today, given that all the parties in the government have their own vested interests in keeping hold of power, and given their knowledge that if the government collapses over peace talks, there is Kadima waiting in the wings to join Netanyahu.
Reason for hope #4: Prime Minister Netanyahu has apparently given strong assurances to President Obama that he is serious about peace talks and about peace, and Obama is relying on these assurances. The commitment of an Israeli prime minister to an American president is no small thing. Netanyahu will be under tremendous pressure to live up to it.
Reason for hope #5: The imposition of the soon-to-end 10-month settlement moratorium resulted in neither the collapse of the Israeli government nor widespread protests in Israel (despite the best efforts of the settlers and their supporters). This experience bolsters the argument that there is no reason why the settlement moratorium cannot be continued, indefinitely. Moreover, in the wake of the March 2010 Jerusalem settlement debacle during Vice President Biden's visit, provocative Israeli actions in East Jerusalem have in large part ceased, demonstrating again that this can be done if there is political will to do so.
Reason for hope #6: The Palestinian Authority is today led by President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Salam Fayyad - two men who have demonstrated their commitment to non-violence, negotiations, and peace, and under whose watch the security situation in the West Bank has improved substantially. They are respected by the US and recognized by Israel and the world as serious partners for peace. And it is hoped that if peace talks show real progress, their strength and credibility in the Palestinian domestic political arena will rise, enabling them to unite the Palestinian polity.
Reason for hope #7: The fact that the Palestinians agreed, under pressure from the US, to come to direct talks despite understandable misgivings puts the onus on the US to make sure Abbas is not undermined by what happens once talks start.
Reason for hope #8: The Palestinian Authority has demonstrated already, during proximity talks, that it is taking the peace effort seriously. The Palestinians have a professional, competent team in place, and have already demonstrated seriousness by putting concrete proposals on the table.
Reason for hope #9: The Arab League has endorsed the talks. Key Arab leaders - President Mubarak of Egypt and King Abdullah of Jordan - are directly involved from the outset. If the Arab world sees that the Obama Administration is serious and effective as the process moves forward, this involvement and support can grow.
Reason for hope #10: President Obama hasn't given up. Many suggested that with midterm elections nearing, he would abandon his peace effort. He didn't, and rumor has it that with the launching of these new peace talks, President Obama will become personally engaged in his Middle East peace policy, ready to "own" the issue and ensure his policy's success. There are hints that he is prepared to invest the political capital necessary to keep these talks on track and on-target and to engage with the kind of serious leadership necessary to prevent actions by either party that threaten the viability of the negotiations themselves.
Reason for hope (bonus): Polls continue to show that Israelis and Palestinians support the two-state solution and support negotiations to achieve a peace agreement. Recent polling also shows that Arabs from across the Middle East support the two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
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