Earlier this week (just in time for the start of peace talks in Washington) the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) released data (English and Hebrew) regarding construction in settlements (and inside Israel). These include numbers for 2006-2009, the first quarter of 2010, and estimated numbers for the second quarter of 2010. Much has been made of the fact that the data show virtually no new settlement starts in 2010, with the CBS reporting only 2 starts in the first quarter of 2010 and 3 in the second quarter.
However, this is not tell the whole story.
The key fact missing from such analysis is this: so much new construction was front-loaded just before the start of the moratorium that if the moratorium is not extended past Sept 26th its impact will have been minimal.
However, this is not tell the whole story.
The key fact missing from such analysis is this: so much new construction was front-loaded just before the start of the moratorium that if the moratorium is not extended past Sept 26th its impact will have been minimal.
At the same time, if the moratorium is extended -- with no new exemptions or loopholes -- it can have a real impact.
And one more key fact: the CBS statistics omit entire categories of new construction starts in settlements. The result is that the real number of starts is much higher than the handful reported by the CBS. The actual number of starts since the imposition of the moratorium is closer to 750 (as documented below).
The bottom line is this: it is good news that the government of Israel has abided by its own legally-binding decision to stop authorizing new settlement construction. But let nobody be fooled: settlement construction continues, and unless the moratorium is extended beyond September 26th, it will have had almost no impact.
These are the facts, and with the settlement moratorium set to take center stage as a major challenge to the newborn peace talks, people would do well to learn them.
The CBS does not look at all the data.
As noted by Peace Now, the CBS data is based solely on the number of construction permits issued by Israeli authorities. The CBS does not verify these numbers with actual surveys of the situation on the ground. As a result, the CBS data does not address the widespread phenomenon of building in settlements without permits and or the fact that inaccurate data may have been conveyed by the settlement local authorities. It also fails to address the fact that there are often delays between the date of a permit's issuance and the beginning of construction.
Indeed, as Peace Now correctly observes: "According to CBS definitions, 'the building data does not include erecting caravans, mobile homes... outposts in Judea and Samaria, buildings for which no report of building permits was given to the CBS, or illegal building for housing that was not registered in an Interior Ministry report." Furthermore, "the building data for the Jewish settlements in Judea and Samaria whose population is up to 10,000 residents is presented as a summary because of the low level of the quality of the data in some of the settlements.'"
As a result, the CBS overlooks some construction.
Unlike the CBS, Peace Now does carry out aerial surveys and site visits in order to understand the construction situation inside settlements. According to a Peace Now count based on such data, around 600 new housing units have been started, and another 167 caravans were erected, since the moratorium was imposed at the end of November 2009.
The discrepancy between the CBS data and the Peace Now data is due unauthorized construction, the erecting of caravans, and construction in small settlements -- all of which the CBS acknowledges it does not count. The discrepancy also reflects the difference between the date of a permit being issued and the beginning of construction.
The CBS does clearly document the front-loading of starts in 2009.
The CBS numbers document a dramatic spike in housing starts (government and private construction combined) just before the freeze was implemented, with starts increasing by 103% in the last quarter of 2009, compared to the rest of the year.
Due to this spike in starts at the end of 2009, and the subsequent blanket exemption demanded by Israel to permit construction already underway at the time of the moratorium was imposed to continue, construction on the ground has been able to continue during the moratorium.
The CBS also exposes the dramatic spike in government-sponsored starts at the end of 2009.
The CBS numbers demonstrate that the spike in new starts just before the moratorium was implemented reflected in part a sharp rise in government-sponsored housing starts in settlements during this period, with such starts increasing by 415% in the last quarter of 2009, compared to the rest of the year.
The CBS reveals that privately-sponsored starts also increased at the end of 2009.
The CBS numbers show that the spike in starts just before the imposition of the moratorium was also due to an increase in privately-sponsored (but government-approved) housing starts in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2009 (a period during which discussion of a settlement freeze was ongoing), with such starts increasing by 79% compared to the first half of the year.
And one more key fact: the CBS statistics omit entire categories of new construction starts in settlements. The result is that the real number of starts is much higher than the handful reported by the CBS. The actual number of starts since the imposition of the moratorium is closer to 750 (as documented below).
The bottom line is this: it is good news that the government of Israel has abided by its own legally-binding decision to stop authorizing new settlement construction. But let nobody be fooled: settlement construction continues, and unless the moratorium is extended beyond September 26th, it will have had almost no impact.
These are the facts, and with the settlement moratorium set to take center stage as a major challenge to the newborn peace talks, people would do well to learn them.
The CBS does not look at all the data.
As noted by Peace Now, the CBS data is based solely on the number of construction permits issued by Israeli authorities. The CBS does not verify these numbers with actual surveys of the situation on the ground. As a result, the CBS data does not address the widespread phenomenon of building in settlements without permits and or the fact that inaccurate data may have been conveyed by the settlement local authorities. It also fails to address the fact that there are often delays between the date of a permit's issuance and the beginning of construction.
Indeed, as Peace Now correctly observes: "According to CBS definitions, 'the building data does not include erecting caravans, mobile homes... outposts in Judea and Samaria, buildings for which no report of building permits was given to the CBS, or illegal building for housing that was not registered in an Interior Ministry report." Furthermore, "the building data for the Jewish settlements in Judea and Samaria whose population is up to 10,000 residents is presented as a summary because of the low level of the quality of the data in some of the settlements.'"
As a result, the CBS overlooks some construction.
Unlike the CBS, Peace Now does carry out aerial surveys and site visits in order to understand the construction situation inside settlements. According to a Peace Now count based on such data, around 600 new housing units have been started, and another 167 caravans were erected, since the moratorium was imposed at the end of November 2009.
The discrepancy between the CBS data and the Peace Now data is due unauthorized construction, the erecting of caravans, and construction in small settlements -- all of which the CBS acknowledges it does not count. The discrepancy also reflects the difference between the date of a permit being issued and the beginning of construction.
The CBS does clearly document the front-loading of starts in 2009.
The CBS numbers document a dramatic spike in housing starts (government and private construction combined) just before the freeze was implemented, with starts increasing by 103% in the last quarter of 2009, compared to the rest of the year.
-
The total number of starts reported for the last quarter of 2009 was 762 starts, an average of 254 starts per month.
- This is in contrast to the first three quarters of 2009, when there were only 1126 starts, or a combined average of 125 starts per month.
- The 125 per month average for the first three quarters of 2009 is comparable to the average number of starts in 2006 (126 per month) and 2007 (123 per month). It is slightly lower than 2008 (176 per month), when there was a spike in starts due to the "Annapolis effect," i.e., immediately after the Annapolis Conference, Prime Minister Olmert approved a number of large projects.
Due to this spike in starts at the end of 2009, and the subsequent blanket exemption demanded by Israel to permit construction already underway at the time of the moratorium was imposed to continue, construction on the ground has been able to continue during the moratorium.
The CBS also exposes the dramatic spike in government-sponsored starts at the end of 2009.
The CBS numbers demonstrate that the spike in new starts just before the moratorium was implemented reflected in part a sharp rise in government-sponsored housing starts in settlements during this period, with such starts increasing by 415% in the last quarter of 2009, compared to the rest of the year.
- During the fourth quarter of 2009, there were new government-sponsored starts in settlements, for an average of 134 starts per month.
- This compares to the previous three quarters of 2009, where there were only 232 such starts, for an average of 26 starts per month.
- As a result of this spike, the total number of government-sponsored housing starts in settlements in 2009 (633) was higher than the totals for 2006 (573) or 2007 (608). Due to the Annapolis effect, it was still slightly lower than 2008 (798).
The CBS reveals that privately-sponsored starts also increased at the end of 2009.
The CBS numbers show that the spike in starts just before the imposition of the moratorium was also due to an increase in privately-sponsored (but government-approved) housing starts in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2009 (a period during which discussion of a settlement freeze was ongoing), with such starts increasing by 79% compared to the first half of the year.
- In the third quarter of 2009 there were 443 such starts, and in the fourth quarter of 2009 there were 361 starts, for a combined average of 134 starts per month.
- This compares to 250 starts in the first quarter of 2009 and 201 in the second quarter of 2009, for a combined average of 75 starts per month.
- As a result of this spike, the total number of privately-sponsored housing starts in settlements in 2009 (1255) was higher than the totals for 2006 (945) and 2007 (863). Due to the Annapolis effect, it was still slightly lower than 2008 (1309).
Tweet
Email a friend
feed
twitter
facebook
While there seems to be all these facts and numbers regarding settlements, I wonder if AFPN tracks the amount of arms smuggled into Gaza, how much money is funneled into Gaza to help the people and is instead used to buy arms, the number of rockets fired into Israel from Gaza, the number of Israeli citizens killed by suicide bombers from the West Bank and Gaza and how many Palestinian children are taught to hate Jews and Israel each year. While I don't agree with building or expanding settlements, the Palestinians are no angels. Israel doesn't fire into Gaza nor do they blow themselves up to kill others or teach their children to hate anyone. Peace is not only Israel's responsibility. The Palestinians have never failed to blow a chance for their own state and for peace.