Shalit Deal Nearing? Israeli President Shimon Peres confirmed Sunday that progress had been made towards a deal that would see the freeing of captive IDF soldier Gilad Shalit in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails.

 

The talks between Israel and Hamas are taking place with German mediation.

 

Alex Fishman writes in Monday's Yedioth Ahronoth about the dilemma facing the Israeli government as it reviews a potential deal: "If masses of Palestinian prisoners are released in keeping with the structure outlined by the foreign media, Abu Mazen [another name for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas] might as well resign in the Mukataa [the Palestinian Authority headquarters]. This deal... is liable to lead, in the worst-case scenario, to anarchy in the territories and, in the best-case scenario to a flourishing of the extremist schools within Fatah that subscribe to the point of view that there is no point in talking with Israel and that violence pays."

 

"In order to compensate Abu Mazen and to try to preserve his government after this blow to his morale, the Israeli government is going to have to think about releasing hundreds upon hundreds of Fatah prisoners on his behalf, expanding the territory under the Palestinian Authority's rule extensively, a dramatic cessation of construction in the settlements and so forth," advises Fishman.

 

Yedioth Ahronoth reports that a deal to return Shalit may not have an automatic majority within Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's internal cabinet, known as the "Forum of Seven." Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe Yaalon, and Minister Benny Begin are expected to vote against the deal. Netanyahu, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, and Intelligence Minister Dan Meridor are expected to approve the deal, making Shas leader and Internal Affairs Minister Eli Yishai the swing vote.

 

At the same time, Industry, Trade and Labor Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer told Israel Army Radio today that the emerging deal would be approved by a majority of cabinet ministers.  (Haaretz, 11/23/09; Yedioth Ahronoth, 11/23/09; Israel Army Radio, 11/24/09)

 

Talking About a Settlement Freeze: Israeli Defense Ministry lawyers have finalized a set of military orders to accompany a moratorium on Israeli construction in the West Bank, Yedioth Ahronoth columnist Alex Fishman reports Monday.

 

"The military orders were drafted in coordination with the Prime Minister's Office as part of Israel's political preparations for a resumption of the talks with the Palestinians," Fishman explains. Israel is reportedly planning on issuing the orders as soon as Israel's leaders resume negotiations with the Palestinian Authority.

 

Israel's legal system considers the West Bank to be subject to martial law, and not to Israeli civil law. Thus military orders can have sweeping ramifications.

 

The draft orders were reportedly among a list of steps that Israel is taking to prepare for the possibility of renewed negotiations. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak are said to have presented this task list to the Obama Administration earlier this month. (Yedioth Ahronoth, 11/23/09)

 

Obama Flexes Muscles: The publication on the front page of Yedioth Ahronoth last week of an American request that Israel not proceed with plans to expand settlement between Jerusalem and Bethlehem touched off a new crisis in relations between the American and Israeli governments.

 

"This is a crisis engineered by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu," wrote Lara Friedman and Danny Seidemann on the APN website.  "A crisis intended to create a head-on collision with the Obama Administration over Jerusalem...  And while Bibi had a number of 'conventional' options for dealing with the issue, he chose to go nuclear by making this issue - and his defiance of US concerns - a top story.  In doing so, he has undermined the prospects for the very negotiations he claims he wants."

 

After the American request was leaked to the Israeli press, the Jerusalem municipality approved the plan to build close to 900 new housing units in the area southwest of Gilo, in the direction of the Palestinian village of Wallajeh.

 

"The Gilo plan is thus extremely provocative on several levels," explained Friedman and Seidemann. "It represents a clear and public statement from the Netanyahu government that it is neither 'freezing' nor acting with 'restraint' in East Jerusalem.  It compels the Palestinians to respond, just as it compels other regional actors to respond.  Finally, it has important strategic implications, since the plan, implemented, would impact on border options for Jerusalem under a future peace agreement."

 

The first public reaction was an unusual statement made by White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs, who expressed "dismay" over the approval of the project. "At a time when we are working to re-launch negotiations, these actions make it more difficult for our efforts to succeed," he said, adding that the American "position is clear: the status of Jerusalem is a permanent status issue that must be resolved through negotiations between the parties."

 

The next day President Barack Obama personally spoke out about settlement construction. "I think that additional settlement building does not contribute to Israel's security. I think it makes it harder for them to make peace with their neighbors," Obama told Fox News.

 

He added: "I think it embitters the Palestinians in a way that could end up being very dangerous." (PeaceNow.org, 11/17/09; White House, 11/17/09; Reuters 11/18/09)

 

Obama Flexes Muscles, Part II: There are some indications that the clear American objection to the expansion of Gilo is having an impact on Israeli policy.

 

Yedioth Ahronoth reported Thursday that tenders for 1,500 new housing units in the East Jerusalem neighborhoods of Pisgat Zeev and Har Homa are being reexamined.  "We can't be provocative and defiant," a senior Housing Ministry official told the paper.

 

Like Gilo, Har Homa and Pisgat Zeev are Jewish neighborhoods built beyond the 1967 borders in areas that Israel considers to be part of Jerusalem.

 

"A tender for building 280 apartments was already due to be issued in the coming month, but now, following the American opposition, the issuing of the tender is expected to be postponed by several months - along with tenders for building about 1,200 apartments more," Yedioth Ahronoth reported. (Yedioth Ahronoth, 11/19/09)

 

East Jerusalem Woes: Even as it approved the construction of 900 new housing units southwest of Gilo - which are likely to be populated by Israeli Jews - Israel's Jerusalem planning commission refused to act on a plan for the construction of 200 housing units in the nearby Arab neighborhood of Sur Baher.

 

The following day settlers organized a cornerstone laying ceremony for the construction of 105 additional housing units to be built as part of a Jewish settlement in the heart of the Arab neighborhood of Jabel Mukaber.  In attendance were Likud Knesset member Danny Danon and New York State Assemblyman Dov Hikind.

 

The Israeli Peace Now movement demonstrated opposite the settler event, noting that the new construction "will bring disaster."

 

Demolition of Palestinian homes elsewhere in East Jerusalem on Wednesday also drew headlines.

 

Haaretz's editorial on Sunday expressed frustration with these developments: "The approval of the plan to build 900 housing units in Gilo over the Green Line does not conform to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's call to renew talks. The demolition of Palestinian houses in the village of Isawiyah in East Jerusalem does not improve the murky atmosphere characterizing [Palestinian President Mahmoud] Abbas and Netanyahu's relationship. Israel's unilateral steps in Jerusalem corroborate Hamas' claim that the Oslo process was a mistake and strengthens Hamas' call for violent opposition to the occupation."

 

"If Netanyahu is dedicated to a solution that will ensure Israel's future as a Jewish, democratic and safe country, as he says he is, he must immediately order a halt to construction and demolitions in East Jerusalem," the editorial added. "His claims that he did not know and cannot intervene are not persuasive, and they are being interpreted as a lack of leadership." (Yedioth Ahronoth, 11/18/09; Ynet, 11/18/09; Israel Army Radio, 11/18/09; Haaretz, 11/22/09)

 

Israelis Back Talks, Doubt Netanyahu: 75% of Israeli Jews back negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, according to a recent poll by the Tami Steinmetz Center at Tel Aviv University.

 

Among those who support negotiations, 57% think that a settlement freeze is important.

 

Pollsters also asked about Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's statement that final status talks can begin immediately.  Only 46% of Jewish Israelis said they thought Netanyahu's offer was sincere.

 

The number of Israelis who view President Barack Obama as favoring the Palestinians over Israel is declining. Comparing this poll with one they ran in May, pollsters Ephraim Ya'ar and Tamar Hermann write that "within half a year the percentage of those ascribing a pro-Palestinian policy to Obama fell by 15%, while simultaneously the rate of those who see him as pursuing a neutral policy rose by 6%, and a pro-Israeli one by 3%." (Ynet, 11/18/09; Tami Steinmetz Center, 11/19/09)

 

Defrosting Turkey (-Israel Relations): Israeli Industry, Trade and Labor Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer travelled to Turkey on Sunday for a series of economic and political meetings. 

 

Ben-Eliezer is the first cabinet-level Israeli official to visit Ankara since Turkey canceled a military maneuver with Israel last month.

 

"I hope my economic and political talks will make it possible to get the important relations between Israel and its Turkish strategic partner back on track," Ben-Eliezer said before his trip began, adding, "Turkey has special ties with Israel, and as a regional and democratic-Muslim power."

 

The Israeli press speculated this weekend that Ben-Eliezer was expected to propose that Turkey resume mediating Syrian-Israeli peace talks. Yedioth Ahronoth reported Sunday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu "does not dismiss the idea."

 

Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman reacted sharply to this rumor, saying Sunday that Ben-Eliezer's trip to Turkey is "an important trip, but has not been agreed upon by the Foreign Ministry."

 

"After all of Turkey's insults and tongue-lashing against Israel, they can't be a mediator," Lieberman added.

 

Ben-Eliezer's trip is the latest in a series of news items indicating warming ties. It follows a media report about an Israeli-Turkish-Jordanian search and rescue drill conducted on a Turkish base earlier this month. Israel and Turkey have also resolved a disagreement over a weapons deal, paving the way for Israel to deliver 10 drones. (Israel Radio, 11/23/09; Jerusalem Post, 11/23/09; Haaretz, 11/16 & 11/22/09; Yedioth Ahronoth, 11/22/09)

 

Time for Syria Talks: Writing in Haaretz on Sunday, former Director-General of the Israeli Foreign Ministry Uri Savir called for Israel to make progress on the Syrian peace track.

 

"Something is cooking between Washington and Damascus," wrote Savir. "U.S. President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton have been talking a lot about regional peace and not just an Israeli-Palestinian peace accord. In addition, Syrian President Bashar Assad is calling on Israel to resume negotiations. Israel must seriously consider entering peace talks with Syria and embracing an American initiative for an agreement that would include an Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights, security arrangements, as well as nature reserves and tourist areas in the Golan."

 

"If Syria cools its relations with Iran and its allies and chooses peace, Israel must move in Syria's direction, even returning the Golan," Savir continued. "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must adopt a realistic approach to negotiations and consider shuffling the coalition government and adding the Kadima party."

 

"Many people, especially on the right, consider talk about the possibility of peace with Syria as impractical, or as an obscenity," Savir added. "It isn't. From the security standpoint, it would be Israel's most valuable peace agreement. Progress on the Syrian track would not come at the expense of negotiations with the Palestinians, and would be a vital component in the regional peace we seek. The Netanyahu government must take advantage of the Americans' stance, proceed in this direction and see to Israel's long-term security." (Haaretz, 11/22/09)