And what Obama officials were saying about the sanctions -- including alluding to concerns that they would harm civilians rather than the government and could thus be counterproductive, and emphasizing the need for multilateral, rather than unilateral, action -- would seem to indicate that they share many of our concerns about this particular sanctions initiative.
Key excerpts from the hearing are copied here:
JAMES
STEINBERG, DEPUTY SECRETARY, STATE DEPARTMENT
"...You're
seeing a coming together of countries around the world to recognize that this
is
"...how to
impose sanctions and have them be effective is a -- is a matter of judgment and
not science. We've had a lot of experience as you said over the years with
sanctions. We know that sometimes they have an impact on the population
and the government is able to insulate itself from those sanctions. Other times they can provide leverage by
putting additional pressure on the governments. And I think that's something
that we're going to have to fine tune as we go forward. I think
it's important that we have a broad range of tools available to us, but I think
we do need to have a -- a more refined judgment about precisely how to exploit
the kind of vulnerabilities that Undersecretary Levey talked about to see which
are the smart sanctions that have the biggest impact. So for example, the
undersecretary talked about the role of the IRGC. That may be a place where we
could be particularly effective. And I think we want to work with you, working
with the experts in this area as we develop this toolkit to think about how the
targeting is most effective in both supporting those we want to support in Iran
and putting the pressure on those who need to make the decisions desist from
the program that they're currently involved in."
"...I
do think we always have to worry about the humanitarian impact and the
political impact [of proposed sanctions] because we want to take advantage of
the dynamic there and not to undercut the opposition, not to hurt those who are
being courageous...And I think part of it will be a judgment call as
Undersecretary Levey has said about whether there's a broad international
consensus, whether this is seen as the international community taking an action
so that it's not the United States alone singling them out that I think we'll
have an impact on the political dynamic within Iran. It may also depend on what other measures are
taken and how obvious it is that
"...the most
important thing is I think we have a better chance of getting broad-based
sanctions, broad-based economic and political pressure because we've
demonstrated that -- that we have made every effort to solve this through
diplomacy, and that the burden is clearly on Iran, and that they have clearly
rejected any attempt to solve this peacefully. I think that's an enormous tool
for us to get others to act and at the end of the day, not only is -- because
not only is a sanction more effective when they're -- when they're broad-based,
but it also takes away the political argument that the Iranian government may
try to make, which that this is American hostility. This is -- this is clearly an international
rejection of their unwillingness to be straightforward and open about their
program, their unwillingness to prove that it is peaceful. And so I think that
affects not only our ability to get others to join us, but the dynamic that
we've all been discussing today about how this plays to Iran itself, becomes
harder for them to -- to try to use that line with their own people about why
these painful measures are now being employed."
---------
Sen. Corker
(R-TN): ...Senator Bayh [D-IN] had asked a good question about what might happen
with the sanctions on refined product as far as the people go. As a just a tool
itself, I mean, do you think the -- the keeping of refined product from
actually coming in from other places to
STEINBERG:
Senator, I think -- I think, we still have not reached a -- a firm
judgment on whether that would be the best way to go. In part because
we have to -- we need a better understanding of what the efficacy would be, in
part because it would depend on how -- the degree to which others participated
in this. Obviously this is a hard thing to do in a vacuum.
CORKER:
Sure, but -- but if everybody participated, I know right now China's the -- the
major assistor (ph), if you will, but if -- if everybody participated and the
companies that have just recently stopped continued to stop, would it be an
effective sanction or not?
STEINBERG:
Again, I think -- I think we have not reached a firm conclusion about
whether the net benefits and the net costs would have the effect, because the
-- the challenge is always to try to translate the economic impact into what
the political impact would be.
And our goals, as we think about what we might want to do going
forward is to think, as -- as Secretary Levey said, but how does the government
make its calculations? What would have the biggest impact on them?
Whether it's transmitting it through its impact on the people or whether it's
directly affecting their own activities. We found in many cases, for example, and
the reason I think a lot of us are focused on the IRGC, is if you can
focus on the kind of the cost-benefit calculation of the individuals who are
making these decisions, sometimes that has a more targeted impact, sometimes
cause more sanctions than things that have to work as a transmission belt
through the pain they impose on the public. But I don't think we
want to take it off the table. I think it's one of the things that we need to
do.
CORKER:
Let me ask you this, have you asked for Congress to act and the reason I ask
that, I -- my guess is with all the testosterone, if you will, that -- that
shows itself as it relates to Iran and other kinds of things, if you ask for
sanctions, they'd be passed out of here in about 24 hours, maybe more
quickly. So -- so -- so the question is,
have you asked for us to take any actions in Congress as it relates to
sanctions?
STEINBERG:
I think, Senator, the key for us will in part be timing, which is...
CORKER:
No, no, no, but have you asked yet? Just yes, no.
STEINBERG:
We're going to ask for additional measures.
CORKER: So
you'd like for Congress to prescribe what needs to be done, or would you like
for Congress to enable you if you make decisions as it relates to sanctions?
STEINBERG:
Senator, we -- they -- the president would like to have the maximum flexibility
in part because of his ability to...
(CROSSTALK)
CORKER:
He'd like to be enabled.
STEINBERG:
Would like to be enabled.
CORKER: In
an essence just to get to the legislation we had before us, you would oppose,
then, the Lieberman-Kyl Bill that says you shall -- you shall keep refined
product from coming into
STEINBERG:
Again, Senator, I think what we'd like to do is work with the committee
to -- to give the president the appropriate flexibility and I know the chairman
and others have indicated some ways to look at that...
------
STUART
LEVEY, TREASURY UNDERSECRETARY, TERRORISM
"...some of
the...lessons that we've learned are that to the extent we can focus on
illicit conduct of the -- of the government in Iran, we'll have a better chance
of not only getting better support within Iran but getting a better
multi-lateral coalition to impose the measures with us, which is my second
point, that, you know, if we can do this with other countries we're much, much
better off than if we do it unilaterally. So as we go forward, as the
deputy secretary said, we need to be very careful and craft this plan in as
careful a way as possible to make sure we have the desired effect."
------
Sen. Schumer
(D-NY): But the concept, I'm not asking you for language. I'm asking, would the
administration support the concept of putting pressure on oil companies gas --
that sell gasoline to Iran and making it virtually untenable for them to do
that by not selling here?
LEVEY:
Again, Senator, I think we have to, in terms of which of the potential measures
of sanctions, whether they're more targeted on individual entities in Iran as
opposed to a broad-based thing that would affect the Iranian economy like that,
I think we have not reached a judgment as to which of those might be the
most effective. In part because, not only do we want to have the impact on the
economy, we want to make sure that that's going to affect the decision making
in Iran and not target the wrong people in Iran and similarly, to make
sure that we -- that we maximize the chance of getting international support
for these things because there is obviously a risk in these things. And if --
if we do not have international support, that there'll be diversions. There'll
be work -rounds, and the efficacy of the sanctions will not nearly be as
effective."
------
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Iran should not arouse concern. Georgia is the most dangerous flashpoint in Russia's tense relations with the West. The Bible says: "At the appointed time [the king of the north = Russia] will return back [will regain the influence, which it lost after the break-up of the Soviet Union] and come into the south [many indicate that this might be Georgia], but it will not be as the former [1921] or as the latter [2008]. For the dwellers of coastlands of Kittim [the West] will come against him, and he will be humbled, and will return." (Daniel 11:29,30a) Then Iran will be humbled also. "But ships will come from the direction of Kittim, troubling Asshur [Russia] and troubling Eber [inhabiting on the other side the Euphrates]." (Numbers 24:24a, BBE)
At that time, peace will be taken from the earth and the "great sword" - nuclear sword - will be used. (Revelation 6:4) However, it will be neither the great tribulation nor "the end of the world" (Armageddon). As Jesus foretold, that will be "the beginning of birth pains". (Mathew 24:7,8)
If the Heavens planned a full return of Russia (and much suggests this) the present economic crisis will deepen. Then also the European Union and NATO will not stands.
In the same way the earlier prophecy had fulfilled: "And (he) [the king of the north = Russia] will go back (to) his land with great wealth [1945]; and his heart (will be) against the holy covenant [state atheism]; and will act effectively; and turned back to his own land [the break-up of the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact, the return of Russian troops to country]." (Daniel 11:28)