Middle East Peace Report - September 29, 2009

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Thumbnail image for Hillary Clinton & George Mitchell 186x140.jpgVolume 11, Issue 3

Talks to Renew; Jerusalem Tensions; Hamas Outflanked by Gaza Violence; Palestinians Increasingly Moderate on Final Status Issues; New Unit to Combat Settler Violence; On the Road to Normalization; Engaging Iran, Backing Obama...
Vol. 11, Issue 3

Talks to Renew: A series ofmeetings between U.S. Envoy George Mitchell and Israeli and Palestinian delegations are expected to take place in Washington this week in an effort to formulate a framework for negotiations. Israel will be represented by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's advisor, Yitzhak Molcho, and by Defense Minister Ehud Barak's chief of staff, General Michael Herzog

The two are now en route to Washington. 

Saeb Erekat, the head of the Palestinian negotiating team, is also in Washington for the negotiations.

Following these meetings, Mitchell is expected to travel to Israel next week.

Following the peace summit he held last week, President Barack Obama instructed Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to report to him on progress in the talks by October 15. The current round of meetings is in an attempt to bridge the gaps by then.

The Palestinians have reportedly dropped the demand for a total settlement freeze as a precondition to resuming final status negotiations, though the extent of an Israeli freeze may still be on the table. Other issues - such as the time-frame for the talks and the terms of reference - must now also be agreed upon. (Haaretz, 9/29/09; Israel Radio, 3/29/09)

A Marathon, Not A Sprint: On the morning of last week's peace summit in New York, Haaretz columnist Aluf Benn criticized those who belittled the meeting as an unnecessary event.

That sentiment, he wrote, grew out of an Israeli expectation that President Barack Obama "would reveal a peace plan, and push Benjamin Netanyahu and Mahmoud Abbas into working out the nitty-gritty... But Americans work at a different pace than Israelis. Obama didn't promise to present a quick solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict. He promised he would be more involved than George W. Bush, and work toward reviving the peace process."

"Obama has thus far made good on his promises," Benn noted, by appointing Senator George Mitchell as his special envoy to the Mideast and by pulling together Tuesday's summit - the first meeting between the two leaders since Netanyahu returned to power.

"The time that has passed before the summit was not wasted," Benn added, "but was used to improve conditions in the West Bank, remove checkpoints and bolster security coordination between the Israel Defense Forces, the Shin Bet security service and Palestinian security services."

Benn believes that Obama has the time to work "determinedly, yet gradually."

"This is also Mitchell's style: another meeting, another discussion, another preparation, all aimed primarily at building trust and bringing both sides closer to the bigger decisions to be made later," Benn continued. "The Americans absorbed the barbs traded between Israel and the Palestinians on missed opportunities and the failure of the peace process, and simply continued in their work. That's why we must view the New York summit as a step which could lead to renewed negotiations, and not as a dramatic event that will determine once and for all whether peace will ever come." (Haaretz, 9/22/09)

Jerusalem Tensions: The potential for Israeli-Palestinian distrust to turn into violence was evident on Sunday as the entrance by Jewish visitors onto the Temple Mount sparked clashes that echoed the start of the second Intifada nearly a decade ago.

The main clash began when a group of tourists entered the Temple Mount compound accompanied by Israeli police. Some 150 Muslim worshipers gathered around the visitors and some began throwing stones at the group.

Palestinians believe that the visitors were not tourists, but part of a group that wants to re-build the Jewish Temple on the site, which is one of Islam's most holy places.

The police officers fired stun grenades and the confrontation died down, though stone throwing incidents continued in the Old City throughout the day. 18 policemen and 15 Palestinians were injured. 11 Palestinians were arrested.

The incident clearly struck a nerve among Palestinians. "At a time when [US] President [Barack] Obama is trying to bridge the divide between Palestinians and Israelis, and to get negotiations back on track, Israel is deliberately escalating tensions in Jerusalem," chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat said Sunday.

"We've seen this before, and we know what the consequences are," Erekat added, in a clear reference to the visit of then-opposition leader Ariel Sharon to the Temple Mount in 2000 just prior to the start of the second Intifada. (Haaretz, 9/29/09; Jerusalem Post, 9/28/09; BBC, 9/28/09)

Hamas Outflanked by Gaza Violence:
As world attention focused on the meeting between President Barack Obama, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas last week, violence was escalating in the Gaza Strip.

Last Saturday, Palestinian fighters reportedly fired two homemade rockets into Israel from Gaza, September 19th. The following day, IDF soldiers shot and killed two Palestinians who approached the northern Gaza border.

Last Monday morning, Israeli fighter planes then bombed three smuggling tunnels in Rafah.This action was a response to the Saturday rocket launches, according to an Israeli military statement.

On Thursday, Palestinian fighters launched a mortar shell into Israel and IDF forces returned fire.

Violence continued into the weekend, with the Israel Air Force reportedly striking three Palestinian Islamic Jihad operatives as they were preparing to fire rockets on Israel. Ynet reported that this was the first strike of its kind by Israel in Gaza since the end of Operation Cast Lead in January. On Sunday evening, Israel fired artillery shells on an agricultural area in northeast Gaza.

Rockets and mortars were fired on Israel this weekend and yesterday.

Despite the rising violence, Israeli security sources told Israel Radio that Hamas does not want an escalation, and that more radical forces were responsible.

This evaluation was echoed by Amos Harel in today's Haaretz. Harel reports that a senior IDF officer sees the rising violence as stemming from two, interrelated factors. The increased motivation of radical groups affiliated with Al-Qaida and other global jihad groups following the raid by Hamas-backed policemen on a mosque two months ago, during which more than 20 members of an extremist Muslim group were killed.

The second factor in the escalating violence, according to this IDF officer, lies in IDF operations themselves. The IDF recently began initiating more operations to neutralize explosives in Gazan territory. These incursions encounter increased opposition, and thus friction near the fence has risen. (Haaretz, 9/21, 9/24 & 9/29/09; Ma'an News, 9/20, 9/21 & 9/28/09; Israel Defense Forces, 9/25/09; Ynet, 9/26/09; Israel Radio, 9/29/09)

Palestinians Increasingly Moderate on Final Status Issues: A new poll of Palestinians shows strong support for a two-state solution and for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

According to the poll by the International Peace Institute (IPI), 55% of Palestinians want to see a Palestinian state established in the West Bank and Gaza. Only 11% supported each of the alternatives offered, a bi-national state or a confederation with Jordan and Egypt. Support for a two-state solution polled as high as 66%, when discussed in the context of the Arab League Peace Initiative.

The IPI poll also found that a majority of Palestinians now support a number of compromises that most Palestinians rejected in 2000. These include land swaps between the future Palestinian state and Israel, a period of demilitarization for the Palestinian state, and the idea that a peace agreement would mean the end of all claims against Israel.

Nearly 70% of Palestinians are also willing to allow Israel to determine whether refugees would be allowed to reside in Israel. At the same time, the poll finds that Israeli control over parts of East Jerusalem - including Jewish neighborhoods and the Wailing Wall - remains objectionable to 52% of Palestinians.

"Our poll shows that the majority of Palestinians now support a two-state solution and the steps it would involve, even if that may not have been the case nine years ago," said Terje Roed-Larsen, IPI president and the former UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East.

The most popular gestures that Israel might take to advance the peace process were the evacuationof settlement outposts and the release of Palestinian prisoners. Easing checkpoints was the least popular item out of a list of six potential confidence building measures.

Abbas received relatively strong job approval - 55% - in the poll, while his most likely challenger in new elections, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh got 32%. At the same time, Abbas' popularity seems limited. While 52% said they would vote for him, 44% of Palestinians said they wanted to see another candidate elected. (IPI, 9/23/09)

New Unit to Combat Settler Violence: An escalation in attacks on Israeli forces by West Bank settlers has prompted the IDF to establish a new rapid-response team to crack down on extremists and prevent violence between settlers and Palestinians.

"There is without a doubt a rising level of violence in recent weeks," an officer in the Central Command told the Jerusalem Post. "The idea behind the unit is to provide a rapid response to prevent friction and violence between settlers, security forces and Palestinians."

"The settlers crossed red lines. They have uprooted Palestinian trees, kicked a Border Police officer and threw a Molotov cocktail at security forces," the officer said. "We fear that this trend could lead to more violence and possibly terror attacks."

Israeli forces have had problems collecting evidence relating to violent crimes committed against Palestinians and security forces in the West Bank. They therefore rarely arrest those responsible.

Recent reports of settler violence against Palestinians include a shooting last week and the destruction this weekend of roughly 100 olive trees in the northern West Bank. The Israeli military will allow Palestinian farmers to begin picking the olives today in order to prevent damage to the olives left. (Ma'ariv, 9/23/09; Jerusalem Post, 9/24/09; Israel Army Radio, 9/29/09)

On the Road to Normalization: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged Arab governments to take steps toward normalizing relations with Israel in an effort to help restart Mideast peace talks. Clinton made the appeal on Saturday in a meeting with senior officials from Oman, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.

"We hope that the Arabs would find ways to demonstrate to the Israeli public that Israel will be an accepted, normalized part of the region," Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Jeffrey Feltman told reporters before the meeting began Saturday.

The Obama administration has reportedly asked Arab states to deliver "tangible" and "credible" goodwill gestures toward Israel as well as for political and economic support for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

Writing for Israel's Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, Yoel Guzansky explains Israel's interest in normalization. "Closer ties are likely to strengthen Israel's status, bestow legitimacy on other nations seeking to jump on the peace bandwagon, and encourage positive Israeli public opinion via Arab gestures to promote peace," he writes. "Furthermore, the [Persian] Gulf states might give added momentum to the peace process, and if and when an Israel-Palestinian/Arab peace agreement is signed, they may help finance it."

"However," he adds, "now as then, in the eyes of the Gulf states the burden of proof is on Israel: 'It must demonstrate its desire for peace in practice' and agree to a formula that would be acceptable regarding the territories."

Indeed, Ynet reported Thursday that "Israel's failure to achieve normalization with Arab countries was largely due to its approval of 450 more housing units in West Bank settlements" earlier this year. According to the report, the Israeli government had known that the Arab nations might recoil at the announcement, but approved the construction anyway.

Despite this setback, Guzansky notes that the administration "has reportedly extracted 'deposits' whereby Oman and Qatar will reopen the Israeli diplomatic missions in Muscat (closed in 2000 because of the intifada) and Doha (closed in early 2009 as a result of Operation Cast Lead). In addition, several states may allow Israeli civilian airplanes (including cargo planes) through their airspace or even allow direct flights from Israel to airports in their territories, while others would grant visas to Israelis, set up direct telephone dialing, and hold public meetings with Israeli officials at high levels."

Guzansky, who served as a senior official in Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's National Security Council, sees Saudi support as one reason why Arab states in the Persian Gulf are willing to begin normalizing relations. "Saudi Arabia has announced that at this stage it has no intention of making a move that might be interpreted as a gesture towards Israel," he writes, "but it would not oppose such moves on the part of the other Gulf states. Because Saudi Arabia's stance at times sets the tone for the smaller Gulf states, this may be seen as a green light for such moves." (Jerusalem Post, 9/26/09; Ynet, 9/24/09; INSS; 9/29/09)

Engaging Iran, Backing Obama: "Yom Kippur 2009 bore two pieces of news for Israelis," opened today's editorial in Haaretz. "The bad news was Iran's ground-to-ground missile test. The good news was that the Western powers, led by the United States, are facing off against Iran and threatening to increase sanctions against it following the discovery of a secret uranium enrichment facility near the holy city of Qom."

"Bringing the Iranian nuclear program to a halt is a prime Israeli interest," the editorial argues, "but so is preventing escalation and being dragged into a regional war. That is the route Israeli strategy must take: strengthening deterrence along with cooperation and coordination with the United States."

"When U.S. President Barack Obama took office," Haaretz recalled, "he pledged to hold a dialogue with the Iranian regime to forge a stable arrangement for the Middle East... Meanwhile, the Iranian regime has been weakened by revelations of fraud in its presidential elections and by the suppression of the opposition. The discovery of the secret uranium enrichment facility has undermined Iran's credibility in the West and has led Obama to adopt a more aggressive approach."

"Under these circumstances, Israel should support Obama and give him the chance to exhaust the move combining dialogue with the threat of sanctions. This is not the time for Jerusalem to threaten and badger. The Iranian threat is not only Israel's problem, it's that of the entire international community. It's best for Israel if the issue is dealt with on an international level," Haaretz concluded. (Haaretz, 9/29/09)

2 Comments

Iran should not arouse concern. Georgia is a flashpoint in Russia's tense relations with the West. The Bible says: "At the appointed time [the king of the north = Russia] will return and come into the south, but it will not be as the former [1921] or as the latter [2008]. For shall come against him the dwellers of coastlands of Kittim [the West], and he will be humbled, and will return." (Daniel 11:29,30a) What logical conclusions can be drawn from this forecast? Much suggests that the present economic crisis will deepen, making it possible for Russia to regain the influence, which it lost after the break-up of the Soviet Union. In relationship to this, unavoidable will be the split or even a complete break-up of the European Union and NATO. After that, Russia will come somewhere into the south. Many indicate that this might be Georgia. When this happens, the West will come against Russia. Then Iran will be humbled also. "But ships will come from the direction of Kittim, troubling Asshur [Russia] and troubling Eber [inhabiting on the other side the Euphrates]." (Numbers 24:24a, BBE)

At that time, peace will be taken from the earth and the "great sword" - nuclear sword - will be used. (Revelation 6:4) However, it will be neither the great tribulation nor "the end of the world" (Armageddon). As Jesus foretold, that will be "the beginning of birth pains". (Mathew 24:7,8)

This poll is nothing new. There have been numerous polls in the past showing majority support by Palestinians for their own state in the West Bank and Gaza. For instance in 2002 a poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research showed 73% support by Palestinians for reconciliation between the Israeli and Palestinian peoples after reaching a peace agreement and the establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza.

To state in this report that:
"Palestinians Increasingly Moderate on Final Status Issues"
is a gross misrepresentation of the term 'moderate'. Rather than assuming moderation, a more grounded interpretation of the data is to assume that Palestinians recognize that moving the bulk of 500,000 settlers out of their enclaves has become unrealistic, and they are willing to settle for less.

To settle for less than a just final status in the Occupied Territories only demonstrates that Israel's intransigence is paying off.

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