Overcoming Palestinian Divisions? Egypt's Intelligence Minister Omar Suleiman has reportedly developed an ambitious program for creating a Palestinian unity government that would be acceptable to both Hamas and Fateh. Delegations from each party are expected to respond to the proposal by July 7^th.

The proposed agreement, termed a "mega-arrangement" by Yedioth Ahronoth military affairs writer Ron Ben Yishai, reportedly has the blessing of the Obama administration. Israel, writes Ben Yishai, gave the program "a hesitant green light."

The plan calls for a new unity government to rule Gaza, under the authority of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, but not subject to Prime Minister Salam Fayyad's government. It also stipulates holding parliamentary and presidential elections in January 2010, bringing in international forces to help maintain law and order in Gaza, reaching and implementing a deal with Israel for the release of kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, and opening passages to Gaza from both Israel and Egypt subject to remote Israeli monitoring.

Ben Yishai reports that Israel's security establishment is interested in such an arrangement to stabilize the recent calm along the Israeli-Gazan border. Israeli analysts know that Hamas is now preventing attacks on Israel, Ben Yishai notes, but they worry that "continued deadlock and closure is likely to bring Hamas to renew fire in the hope of creating a crisis and placing more pressure on Israel."

"Israel is interested in the Egyptian plan for two additional reasons," writes Ben Yishai. "It increases the chances of releasing Gilad Shalit in the near term and guarantees continued Egyptian efforts to prevent smuggling to Gaza." (Yedioth Ahronoth, 6/22/09; Ynet, 6/21/09)

Palestinians Support Two-State Solution: A recent poll of Palestinian public opinion demonstrates that the belief that the peace process will deliver a Palestinian state strongly influences attitudes on violence. Support for launching rockets against Israel stands at 59% among Palestinians who believe that there is no chance for establishing a Palestinian state in the next 5 years. Among those who believe that the chances are high, only 38% support rocket attacks.

This finding was part of a survey conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip last month.

The poll also finds that 61% of Palestinians support a two-state solution, while less than a quarter favor the one-state solution. Four-out-of-five prefer a comprehensive peace agreement that resolves all the outstanding issues over an interim arrangement.

Half of the Palestinian public is ready to recognize Israel as a Jewish state as part of such a comprehensive settlement. While significant, this figure represents a drop in support for such recognition. In March 2006, a PSR poll found 66% support. Such recognition was a key focal point of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's policy address a week ago.

The poll also demonstrates a tiny shift in the popularity of Fateh relative to Hamas among Palestinians when compared with a poll taken in March. When asked who they would vote for in a hypothetical presidential election, 49% said they would vote for incumbent President Mahmud Abbas and 44% said they would support Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. In March, Abbas received 45% and Haniyeh 47%. The poll also showed that imprisoned Fateh leader Marwan Barghouti would defeat Haniyeh by a 32-point margin.

Asking about legislative elections, the poll finds that Fateh would receive the support of 41% of potential voters, Hamas 33%, and all other electoral lists 9%. 18% said they were undecided. This finding is nearly identical to the March PSR poll.

Palestinians are very distressed about the conflict between Fateh and Hamas, according to the poll. 90% said that the price of this quarrel is high or unbearable. 55% said they worry that they or members of their family could be hurt by Palestinians from one of the two factions.  (PSR, 6/21/09)

Bibi Speech Plays Populist Card: With his speech last week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyhau killed "three birds with one stone," according to Yedioth Ahronoth columnist Nahum Barnea. "He earned a commendation from the White House. He created a rare Israeli consensus around himself, from [Kadima leader] Tzippi Livni to the Jewish Home [right-wing Knesset faction], and also persuaded the majority of the Likud faction that nothing had happened, only a mischievous wink to the Americans, a PR ploy."

Netanyahu's surge in the polls is clear. His approval rating jumped 16 points following the speech, reaching a high of 44%, according to a Haaretz poll which also found that 71% of Israelis supported the speech. The poll also suggests renewed pressure on Kadima to join Netanyahu's coalition government.

At the same time, a poll of Jewish Israelis published by Israel TV Channel One found that less than a quarter believe that the speech represented an articulation of a new policy vision by the prime minister. 60% instead believe that Netanyahu's rhetoric regarding a demilitarized Palestinian state represented a tactical choice of wording to appeal to President Barack Obama and European leaders.

This sentiment was echoed in Barnea's column on Friday. "Netanyahu did not suddenly see the light," he wrote. "Like in the story, the light that he saw at the end of the tunnel was the light of the train rushing toward him, and the locomotive was American. There was no revolution in the Prime Minister's Bureau in Jerusalem. Not even a strategic revolution. Just a small tactical and shrewd step, which unfortunately, came late." (Yedioth Ahronoth, 6/19/09; Haaretz, 6/16/09; Israel TV Channel One, 6/16/09)

No Freeze in Settlement Funding: Israel's budget - now being reviewed by the Knesset - allocates about 1 billion shekels ($250 million) to West Bank settlements over the next two years, Israel Army Radio reported Sunday.

Half of this sum is budgeted for housing construction.

Extensive additional funding for settlements is likely hidden as a subset of other budgets. "The official figures are nothing but the tip of the iceberg and the Israelis will pay not only a political price for the settlements, but also an economic one," Peace Now leader Yariv Oppenheimer said.

Meanwhile, Israel TV Channel Two reported Wednesday that significant construction in settlements was ongoing, and was geared to attract new immigrants to Israel. (AFP, 6/21/09; Israel Army Radio, 6/21/09; Israel TV Channel Two, 6/17/09)

Building Settlements to Stop Peace: Following Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's conditioned acceptance of a future Palestinian state, West Bank settlers reportedly intend to dramatically increase the pace of settlement construction for the express purpose of thwarting a two-state solution.

On Sunday, the plenary of the settlers' Yesha Council met to discuss how to confront demands for a settlement freeze. The members "made various suggestions for aggressive actions" according to a report by the settlers' Arutz 7 web site. Yesha Council members reportedly suggested continuing construction "throughout the settlement enterprise." They also objected to negotiations with the Israeli government over a deal to peacefully remove settlement outposts built in violation of Israeli law. In addition, the settlers' council members suggested creating an "educational lobby" in Israel and the U.S.

A statement posted on the Yesha Council's website explains the alarm. After admonishing Netanyahu for accepting the principle of a Palestinian state, it says: "At the end of the day, what will determine whether there is a Palestinian state - God forbid - whether the land will be divided - God forbid - is construction in Judea and Samaria, the continued development, the broadening and the entrenchment of the settlement enterprise."

The statement continues: "We must demand that Netanyahu cash the check that he presented in his speech, when he said that normal life must continue in Judea and Samaria. Normal life means construction. Normal life means infusing new blood. Normal life means natural development - not just natural growth but natural development of the settlements in Judea and Samaria. This is now the big test of Benjamin Netanyahu. If he will avoid approving significant, massive construction permits in Judea and Samaria, that will mean that he is indeed inducing the creation of a Palestinian state, demilitarized or not." The Yesha Council's statement concludes that nothing "brings closer the creation of a Palestinian state and the division of the land than freezing construction in Judea and Samaria. Freezing causes, God forbid, the weakening of the settlements. Therefore, it is the pivotal test not only of Benjamin Netanyahu but of other members of the ruling coalition, who pledged their allegiance to the land of Israel."

Columnist Hagai Segal, an ideological leader of the settlers' movement - who served a jail sentence for his role in assassinating Palestinian mayors in 1980 - wrote Friday in Makor Rishon-Hatzofe that the battle now is over the "point of irreversibility," the point at which settlements make it impossible to create a Palestinian state in the West Bank. The Obama administration, he argues, recognizes that "the settlement enterprise is very close to the point of irreversibility, which is why this is where most of the energy should be invested." Segal adds that if anyone inside Israel "wonders what he can do now to save Israel from a Palestinian state, the answer is to move to Judea and Samaria. It will not be so easy, because Netanyahu and [Defense Minister Ehud] Barak are not going to sign construction permits wholesale, but almost every veteran settlement still has an unrealized reservoir" of licensed structures. Segal concludes, "one more energetic effort, several more percentages of natural - or not so natural - growth, and uprooting settlements will be removed from the agenda."  (Arutz 7, 6/21/09; www.myesha.org.il, 6/21/09; Makor Rishon-Hatzofe, 6/19/09)

Reform Movement Backs Obama on Peace, Settlements: The Union for Reform Judaism renewed its support for a Middle East peace process based on a two-state solution in a new policy resolution adopted by its Board of Trustees a week ago.

The resolution - titled "Middle East Peace: The Urgent Need for Leadership" - praised President Barack Obama for responding "boldly" to the urgent need to "revive the stagnant peace process."

"Although we are mindful that it is still quite early in the Obama Administration," the resolution notes, "the first months suggest that it can provide the type of creative, determined and sustained leadership that is necessary to help the parties move forward. The President and his national security team have pledged to make the pursuit of Israeli-Palestinian peace a priority and have begun taking encouraging steps and actions to achieve it, including appointing Special Envoy George Mitchell and training a new and professional Palestinian Authority security force that can defend Israelis and Palestinians against extremist violence."

The resolution also bemoaned the "failure of the Israeli government to meet its commitments regarding the removal of unauthorized settler outposts and the halting of settlement growth." It explicitly supported the "calls by the United States government. for the government of Israel to freeze all settlement construction and immediately dismantle illegal outposts, not only to fulfill its prior commitments, but also to do so as the politically wise and morally right action that enhances Israel's efforts to preserve a secure future for Israel as a Jewish and democratic state."

The Union for Reform Judaism, led by its President, Rabbi Eric Yoffie, is the largest Jewish religious movement in North America, compromised of 1.5 million Reform Jews and more than 900 congregations. (Religious Action Center, 6/15/09)