07/25/2008

This week, Israel was visited by the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, who, if the polls are accurate, is expected to win the election this fall. Illinois Senator Barack Obama made all the requisite stops and uttered the necessary statements, so as to raise his standing on foreign policy issues and among certain constituencies.

Assuming that Obama, should he be elected, is sincere about his intention to take an active role in moving Israelis and Palestinians toward a two-state agreement, it's clear that any new American effort is still months away. A new president will be inaugurated only next January, and his immediate focus is likely to be on domestic policy issues, with Iraq and Afghanistan being the pressing concerns in the foreign policy realm.

And yet, there is another potential presidential candidate who could do much today to jump-start Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, without the sides having to wait for foreign mediation.

There has been a flurry of media stories in recent days suggesting that Israel may be willing to include Marwan Barghouti among those Palestinians released from prison in return for Hamas freeing Gilad Shalit. The 49-year-old Barghouti was sentenced in 2004 by an Israeli civil court to five consecutive life terms for his activities in the second intifada. As the undisputed leader of "Young" Fatah, he has long been considered the leader of the national camp inside Palestine, and the only Fatah leader who has the credibility with Hamas to bring the sides together.

Barghouti's release wouldn't come a minute too soon. There has never been a more opportune time for Israel and the Arab world to make peace. Nearly the entire Arab world has expressed support for the Saudi peace initiative, which, while not a final agreement that an Israeli government will sign, includes for the first time an agreement by the bulk of the Arab states to acknowledge Israel's right to a secure existence next to a Palestinian state. There seem to be negotiations going on between Israel and Syria. And, according to Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, the talks his government has been having with the Palestinian Authority bring Israel and the Palestinians closer than ever to an agreement.

What is missing, however, at least as far as Israel is concerned, is a stable Palestinian partner that can guarantee Israelis that any agreement reached speaks for all Palestinians. Many Israelis rightly look at the current situation, with President Mahmoud Abbas sitting in Ramallah and Hamas ruling in Gaza, and wonder with whom Israel can indeed make peace.

Despite the popular impression in Israel, Palestinians have not given up on the idea of a two-state agreement. A poll conducted in June by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO) found that 59.8 percent of the Palestinian public supports two states "as the favored solution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict," whereas only 30.4 percent claimed that a binational state established on the whole of historic Palestine would be preferable.

In fact, support for Fatah over Hamas has also been growing. The PCPO polls also showed that 40.7 percent of the public preferred Mahmoud Abbas, as compared with 18.6 percent for Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, when they were asked whom they would support in a two-way match-up between the current leaders of each faction.

But Abbas' term is up next year, and the 73-year-old has said that he won't run again. Even if his tenure is extended, the ground must be prepared now for the period that follows. Palestinians need to rebuild their nationalist camp, which supports two states on the ground.

Barghouti has already announced that he will run for the presidency following Abbas, whether he's in prison or not. And the same poll showed that 42.8 percent of Palestinians preferred him as a candidate over Haniyeh, who drew 18.1 percent support.

Around the time that Gilad Shalit was abducted, many Palestinians were voicing support for a joint document, negotiated between prisoners representing Hamas and Fatah, that called for a Palestinian state alongside Israel, within the pre-1967 borders. It was Barghouti who negotiated that document with Hamas prisoners. It is the first document of its kind, calling for two states and signed by leading Hamas figures, in addition to Barghouti and others from Fatah.

Since then, Barghouti has continued to be the man to go to among key Israeli and Palestinian leaders. Infrastructure Minister (and former defense minister) Benjamin Ben-Eliezer told Haaretz just a year ago: "We have to find a suitable opportunity to release Barghouti, and we have to link it to the release of Gilad Shalit. I know this is hard to cope with. But we have to look 10 years down the line, and ask ourselves where we want to go."

It is widely known that Barghouti's closest ally among the Fatah Young Guard is Kadura Fares, who signed the Geneva Initiative in favor of two states after meeting with Barghouti. Fatah Prime Minister Salam Fayyad is also said to be in contact with Barghouti, and reportedly met with him before forming the current Palestinian government.

Barghouti is the one who can assist Israel in negotiations with a Palestinian partner who can secure peace, because he is able to work the street on behalf of Abbas and Fatah, to help rebuild the national camp that supports two states, and to sell a final agreement. His release could help pave the way for another potential president - this time, an American - to finally and robustly bring about a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Jo-Ann Mort writes frequently about Israel and the Palestinians. She is the co-author (with Gary Brenner) of "Our Hearts Invented a Place: Can Kibbutzim Survive in Today's Israel?" (Cornell University Press).