SETTLEMENT FREEZE: A banner headline on the front page of Wednesday's Ha'aretz announced that "Jerusalem promises to freeze W. Bank construction." That article, by Aluf Benn, reported that Israel is under pressure to "make significant gestures on settlements and outposts prior to the conference, to compensate for its refusal to discuss the 'core issues' of a final-status agreement until after the conference ends. These gestures are meant to make it clear that Israel does not intend to remain in the territories, and [that it] understands that its presence there is only temporary." Benn adds that the "settlement freeze is also meant to help persuade Arab and Muslim countries, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Indonesia, to attend the Annapolis conference."

When it came to deciding between a settlement freeze or the removal of unauthorized settlement outposts, Benn reports that Israel prefers a settlement freeze. He quotes an Israeli government official who explains that of the two, "a settlement freeze is easier than evacuating the outposts, because this only involves a declaration, not a confrontation with settlers in the field." Meanwhile, construction for some 4,000 housing units is underway at 88 established settlements across the West Bank as well as at a number of outposts.

To this picture, the Jerusalem Post adds that while "yellow cranes can be seen clearing earth for thousands of homes in many West Bank settlements based on prior authorization," a spokesman for the Construction and Housing Ministry stated that "no new building permits have been issued for housing units in the larger West Bank settlements for the last five months." According to the spokesman, building permits for only 260 units were issued in those communities in 2007 and those were handed out in the first part of this year. Yet, there is little to indicate that this phenomenon represents a policy shift. The Jerusalem Post wrote that the Construction and Housing Ministry spokesman "did not believe there was a need for additional homes in the [large] settlements at this time and that, overall, new construction was down in many areas of the country."

In this context, it remains unclear whether Israel will implement a settlement freeze or what a settlement freeze actually means. "For example, will the freeze apply to settlements blocs that are, according to informal understandings with the U.S., to remain within Israel's territory after the permanent agreement with the Palestinians?" asks Ha'aretz's settlement expert Nadav Shragai. He continues with more yet-unanswered questions about any new policy: "Will the government compensate building contractors again [as the government of Yitzhak Rabin did when it stopped some projects]? And what about recent buyers, who already paid for frozen construction sites? Will the freeze include construction projects that have already received all necessary permits and been approved? Will the freeze take away some of the powers of the planning committees in regional and local councils in the West Bank?"

Little is revealed about the extent or nature of the freeze by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's comments today that Israel will not establish any new settlements in the West Bank and will begin to dismantle existing outposts. "The Road Map explicitly obligates Israel not to build new settlements or communities in Judea and Samaria or to expropriate land. We must fulfill these obligations," he said. Olmert added: "We committed not to built new settlements - we won't build new settlements. We promised not to expropriate land - we won't expropriate. We promised to raze illegal outposts - so certainly, we will raze them." Yet, Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat observed that Olmert's statement falls short of Israel's commitments. "He omitted from the Israeli obligation in the Road Map that the Israeli government must freeze all settlement activity, including [construction to account for] natural growth," Erekat said. "Either it's a 100 percent settlement freeze or no settlement freeze. There is nothing in the middle." Ma'ariv reported on Sunday that U.S. is requesting a "complete freeze, including a freeze that will apply inside the settlements themselves." (Ha'aretz, 11/14, 11/15, & 11/19/07; Jerusalem Post, 11/17/07, Ma'ariv, 11/18/07)

SETTLEMENT FREEZE, PART II: Ha'aretz columnist Gideon Levy adds a bit of history to the questions surrounding a potential Israeli settlement freeze: "Israel has signed a series of binding agreements to freeze settlement activity, which it never intended to fulfill. Of the 40 years of occupation, only during three has construction been stopped. A short memory refresher: In article 7 of the Oslo Accords, Israel promised that 'no party would undertake unilateral steps to alter the situation on the ground, prior to the completion of negotiations for the final status.' That really made an impression on Israel. During the 10 years that followed, the number of settlers doubled. What about the heroic peace efforts of Ehud Barak as prime minister? During the 18 months of his government, Israel began the construction of 6,045 residential units in the territories. And what did Israel sign up for in the Road Map two years later? 'The government of Israel will freeze all its settlement activities, in accordance with the Mitchell report, except for natural growth in the settlements.' And what happened in practice? Accusations that the Palestinians are not implementing the agreements, and a boatload of new settlers. This was also the case in 2005, another major 'year of peace': the disengagement. And what did Israel do in its own backyard? Another 12,000 new settlers."

Levy continues: "Now we are on the eve of another peace event, yet during the past year another 3,525 new residential units were built in the territories, under the auspices of a government that talks incessantly about the end of occupation and two states. All the grandiloquent statements are void of substance when we read the data: Construction is at a peak in 88 settlements. Nowadays, when Ehud Olmert says no, what does he mean? Is the 'no' really 'no' - perhaps it is only 'maybe but not right now?' In view of past experience, the bitter truth is that Olmert's 'no,' like all those before it, is more inviting than 'yes.'" (Ha'aretz, 11/18/07)

FATAH VS. HAMAS: Relations between Fatah and Hamas have turned so venomous that Palestinian President and Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas called on Gazans to topple Hamas' government, while Hamas' military wing accused Fatah "traitors" of planting "Zionist mines" to harm Izz al-Din al-Qassam's fighters.

Last week's dramatic deterioration came at the end of a huge Fatah-organized demonstration in Gaza City Monday to commemorate the iconic Palestinian leader and founder of Fatah, Yasser Arafat, who died three years ago in a Paris hospital. Some 250,000 Gazans showed up for the rally, which was seen by many as a mass demonstration against Hamas' rule. Indeed, some of the demonstrators reportedly taunted Hamas security officers and threw stones at them. Hamas gunmen shot indiscriminately into the crowd. Seven people were killed, including a 13-year-old boy and a 67-year-old man. All were hit in the head or in the upper torso. More than 80 were injured and some 450 were arrested.

New York-based Human Rights Watch, which published a detailed report on the incident, called on Hamas to "establish an independent and nonpartisan commission of inquiry to hold security forces accountable for their use of excessive and indiscriminate force against pro-Fatah demonstrators."

On Thursday, in a televised speech from his Ramallah headquarters, Abbas said that Hamas' lethal handling of Monday's mass demonstration demonstrated "the confusion and isolation of the Islamists in the Gaza Strip," and called on Gazans to rebel and topple their Hamas government. "We must get rid of this clique that took control of the Gaza Strip by force and which is exploiting the suffering and tragedies of our people," Abbas said.

While Abbas depicted Hamas as a gang of criminals, Hamas' military wing accused Fatah of treason, charging that it collaborated with Israel to plant land mines in Rafah. An Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades communiqué from Sunday said that two al-Qassam members were recently injured by "plastic bombs" of the kind used by the "Zionist occupation forces," which were planted by Fatah "traitors."

According to Palestinian columnist Muhammad Yaghi, a fellow with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, the violence in Gaza is part and parcel of the escalating struggle for legitimacy between Fatah and Hamas, which is exacerbated by the upcoming Annapolis summit. In the conclusion of an analysis he prepared for the Institute, Yaghi wrote: "The push for diplomatic progress at Annapolis has already exacerbated the confrontation between Fatah and Hamas. As the meeting approaches and final-status negotiations begin, Palestinian violence may increase and possibly erupt in the West Bank. Moreover, diplomatic prospects have raised the stakes of the debate over who has the political legitimacy to negotiate with Israel. Regardless of what transpires in Annapolis, the [Fatah-led] PA views implementing the Quartet Roadmap's phase-one security requirements as essential to demonstrating its credibility and authority. Because of the ongoing Hamas challenge and the prospect for further escalation, efforts to strengthen the PA's capabilities and improve daily life will become even more critical in the coming weeks. For this reason, the December international donors meeting in France, which will be hosted by French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner and special Middle East envoy Tony Blair, should prepare immediate projects to help bolster Abbas and [Palestinian Prime Minister] Fayad and not simply launch a process that delays any forthcoming funds until several months in the future." (AP, 11/13/07; Human Rights Watch , 11/16/07; AFP, 11/15/07; www.AlQassam.ps, 11/18/07; WINEP, 11/16/07)

PALESTINIAN PUBLIC OPINION: 67.9% of Palestinians support peace negotiations between the Israelis and Palestinians, according to the latest public opinion poll conducted by Jerusalem Media and Communications Center (JMCC). This number indicates a notable rise in support for such negotiations when compared with JMCC polls taken at the height of the Intifada. 51.3% supported negotiations in JMCC's April 2003 poll and 46.5% supported negotiations in JMCC's September 2002 poll. The new survey also found a rise in support for the two-state solution (53%), compared with 51.1% in August and 46.7% in March.

Nevertheless, Palestinians are skeptical of the current political process. Only 35.3% expect the Annapolis meeting to succeed, while 62% expect it to fail. When asked what would happen if the Annapolis meeting fails, 47% said nothing will change in the Palestinian general situation. 28% anticipate the eruption of a new Intifada, and 21.7% pointed to the possibility of a third party intervention.

The JMCC poll also indicated a rise in the popularity of President Mahmoud Abbas and his Fatah movement compared with slight decrease in the popularity of the discharged Prime Minister Ismail Hanieh and his Hamas movement. When asked which figure they trust most, 18.3% said Abbas and 16.3% chose Hanieh. Imprisoned PLC member Marwan Barghouthi came in third place with 14.3%. Fourth place was split equally between Prime Minister Salam Fayyad and Fatah strongman Mohammed Dahlan with 2.3% choosing each.

When asked which the faction they trust most, Fatah came in first with 40%, compared with 34.4% in August, 31.4% in March 2007, and 30.7% in September 2006. 19.7% chose Hamas - a drop in support compared with 21.6% in August, 25.2% in March, and 29.7% in September 2006.

The JMCC poll - taken before the latest deadly clashes in Gaza - revealed that 50% of Palestinians believed that there is a possibility to return to a Fatah-Hamas national unity government by means of dialogue. A poll by An-Najah University carried out after last week's violence in Gaza also revealed support for the integration of Hamas into the Palestinian body politic, with 50.4% agreeing that "there is a need to add Hamas to the institutions of the PLO." Nevertheless, this poll indicates that more Palestinians find Hamas responsible (43%) than Fatah (24.5%) for impairing the work of the Palestinian Legislative Council. 65.9% rejected the general policy of the dissolved Hamas government, while 51.7% supported the general policies of the government headed by Salam Fayyad. (JMCC, 11/12/07; An Najah University, 11/19/07)

WAITING FOR DAMASCUS: Israel's security establishment is interested in re-opening peace negotiations with Syria and is hoping that current mediation efforts will succeed in bringing a Syrian delegation to the talks at Annapolis. "There is good reason for Syria to take part in the Annapolis conference, and a formula can be found for it to take part in the conference," Defense Minister Ehud Barak told the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee last week. He added: "I believe that Syrian participation in the Annapolis conference, under certain conditions, can lead to renewing negotiations with Syria when the time comes, and this is of value to Israel." Ma'ariv reports that "Barak's position has the backing of top IDF officers who believe that steps should be taken to hold negotiations with Syria in order to dispel the great tension on the northern front of the past few months. Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Gabi Ashkenazi and Director of Military Intelligence Major General Amos Yadlin have also expressed this position to the political echelon. The army is convinced that the Syrians are sincere in their intention to resume the peace process with Israel. One senior security official said, 'the Syrians are doing all they can to leave the American axis of evil, and a peace process with Israel would strategically change their position.'"

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert also expressed his support for peace talks with Syria, telling the Knesset committee that "I very much want peace with Syria. I am willing to hold negotiations without preconditions and I hope that at the end of the negotiations, the Syrian will stop their terror activity and leave the axis of evil." He also hinted at back channel talks, saying that "not everything that I do, do I have to report." Turkey and Russia are said to be mediating between Israel and the Syrians. King Abdullah of Jordan reportedly staged a surprise visit yesterday to Damascus to convince Syrian President Bashar Assad to send a high-ranking representative to the Annapolis meeting.

In his recent trip to the United States, Barak reportedly pushed for the Bush Administration to find ways to extricate Syria from its current isolation. "It could be that the effort with Syria will fail," Barak said, "but its participation [in the Annapolis meeting] can lead to processes that may extract Syria from the radical axis with Iran." Barak reportedly tasked Major General (res.) Uri Saguy with preparing for the possibility of peace talks with Syria. Saguy served in the past as chief of IDF Intelligence and served as a part of Israel's negotiating team with Syria under Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin.

A poll of Israelis commissioned by Israel Radio revealed that 46% of Israelis supported simultaneous negotiations on the Palestinian and Syrian tracks. 24% said that Israel should give preference to the Palestinian track, and 8% said that Israel should give preference to the Syrian track. (Ma'ariv, 11/13 & 11/16/07; Yedioth Ahronoth, 11/13 & 11/19/07; Israel Radio, 11/15/07; Ha'aretz, 11/16 & 11/19/07)