LIKE THE NEGOTIATIONS; HATE THE POLITICIANS: 51% of Israelis support the negotiations taking place between Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, according to a Ha'aretz-Dialog survey. 42% oppose the talks. Not surprisingly, support for the talks is high among those who voted for Kadima, Labor, Meretz and Arab parties. Nevertheless, significant portions of right-wing voters also approve of the negotiations. 40% of Yisrael Beitenu voters and 28% of Likud voters also favor the talks.

A comparison of the new poll with the previous Ha'aretz-Dialog survey taken two months ago shows that Olmert's popularity is steady, while his main rivals are becoming less popular. The poll asked whether a number of individuals were suitable to serve as prime minister. Olmert got 20% support, a rise of 2%. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, dropped from 40% to 28%. Defense Minister Ehud Barak dropped from 36% to 23%. Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu fell from 51% to 41%.

Ha'aretz's Yossi Verter comments that "the survey results being published here will bring a smile to [Olmert's] lips. Not because his situation is so great - it isn't - but rather because every one of the prime minister's rivals, without exception, is hanging on by the skin of his teeth. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, queen of the class, the star of all the surveys, is taking a nose dive, Defense Minister Ehud Barak is accumulating more opponents than supporters, and Likud Knesset Member Benjamin Netanyahu is also taking a beating. Make no mistake: All of these people are still in better shape than Olmert, but in this public opinion poll, for the first time, their popularity is decreasing and his is rising - or at least remaining stable. Critical, but stable. In a week like this, when the flu afflicted him and police investigators knocked on the door of his residence twice, even this achievement, spiced with Schadenfreude, is cause for rejoicing."

Verter adds that the "not-so-bad marks that Olmert receives in the political context are testimony to the success of Minister Without Portfolio Haim Ramon's thesis. When Ramon returned to the government, he asserted: 'Only a diplomatic process will save Olmert. Without a diplomatic process all of us are finished.' Ramon was correct, in part. There is indeed approval of the move, but it is not translated into personal support for the person who is leading it." (Ha'aretz, 10/11 & 10/12/07)

HARDBALL NEGOTIATIONS: The Yesha Settlers Council accused Defense Minister Ehud Barak of employing "extortion tactics" in negotiations over the fate of West Bank outposts where settlers are squatting in violation of Israeli law. Barak is reportedly holding up permits for construction in established settlements until the settler groups agree to a voluntary evacuation of some outposts. In response, the settlers have called off the negotiations. "We don't play these games," said Danny Dayan, chairman of the Yesha Settlers Council.

Strategic Affairs Minister Avigdor Lieberman criticized the defense minister on Tuesday noting that since Barak took office "the situation has become much worse than it was. Projects in Elkana, Efrat, Ariel and other places are being stopped. The Talia Sasson report and decisions which are likely to be adopted by the ministerial committee on illegal outposts and at the Justice Ministry mean the end of Jewish settlement in Judea and Samaria."

There is reason to question Lieberman's comments. Three weeks ago, agencies under Barak's command issued an order seizing more than 1,100 square kilometers of land from four Palestinian villages east of Jerusalem. Akiva Eldar reports in Ha'aretz that the "land is slated to be used for a new Palestinian road that would connect East Jerusalem with Jericho. That in turn would 'free up' the E-1 area between Jerusalem and Ma'aleh Adumim - through which the current Jerusalem-Jericho road runs - for a long-planned Jewish development consisting of 3,500 apartments and an industrial park. The Palestinians and the international community, including the United States, have long objected to the E-1 plan on the grounds that it would cut the West Bank in two and sever East Jerusalem from the rest of the West Bank." The Ma'aleh Adumim municipality's plan for the road states that it is needed to ensure "transportational contiguity among Palestinian population centers." Eldar writes that the settlement's plan also "noted that the proposed housing development in E-1 would create an uninterrupted urban expanse between Jerusalem and Ma'aleh Adumim."

Palestinian negotiators saw the expropriation as an attempt to create new facts on the ground. Nabil Abu-Rudainah, an aide to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, asked rhetorically, "How can we establish a contiguous Palestinian state, in the context of this policy of dividing the Palestinian land and turning it into isolated islands?" Former Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei, who is now leading the Palestinian negotiating team, called on Israel to rescind its decision and urged the U.S. to intervene. Qureia, also known as Abu Ala, commented that "such measures will eliminate the possibility of establishing an independent Palestinian state and thus the possibility of a peaceful solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict."

IDF Colonel (res.) Shaul Arieli, a former Israeli peace negotiator, also urged his government to abandon the new road, saying that Israel "cannot talk about a Mideast conference and in the meantime create facts on the ground that create a reality that cannot enable a final peace deal." He added, "If you want to go to a peace conference, you have to stop these actions." U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has requested clarification from Israel over the expropriation. (Israel Army Radio, 12/12/07; Ma'ariv, 10/11/07; Ha'aretz 10/9 & 10/12/07; AP 10/10/07; Ynet, 10/12/07)

WHY LIVNI? Prime Minister Ehud Olmert yesterday named Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni to head Israel's negotiating team with the Palestinians in advance of the Annapolis meeting.

Ma'ariv's Ben Caspit reports that officials close to Olmert view this move as "a shrewd political and diplomatic decision. In diplomatic terms, Livni's close relationship with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and the close relations she recently forged with the Palestinians in general and with Prime Minister Salam Fayyad in particular, will be very helpful in renewing the diplomatic momentum."

Caspit also observes that when it comes to domestic politics, "Olmert also reads the newspapers and came to realize that the Barak-Livni axis was becoming a real impediment and that he had no choice but to adopt the more restrictive and conservative approach of the foreign minister and defense minister over the expansive and more dramatic approach of Deputy Prime Minister Haim Ramon. The timing of Olmert's decision, just two days after Ramon's wedding while the latter is at the beginning of a two-week honeymoon, will make it easier for all of the parties involved to come to terms with the new appointment. Olmert knows that in another few months the final Winograd Committee report is going to be published. In the current situation, with Livni engaged in political negotiations on his behalf, the foreign minister will be hard put either to criticize the prime minister or to take any drastic measures. Her appointment is expected also to calm the coalition, especially the members who are more inclined to the Right within Shas, Yisrael Beiteinu and Kadima, as well as general public opinion."

Finally, Caspit notes that Livni's appointment will "confer a more political atmosphere to the negotiations, as opposed to the professional atmosphere that was lent to the talks while they were headed by Yoram Turbowicz, Shalom Turjeman, Aharon Abramovitch and Amos Gilad." This seems especially important given that the Palestinian team is made up of senior political leaders: former Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei, former ministers Yasser Abed Rabbo and Saeb Erekat, as well as Fatah strategist Akram Haniya and Saha a-Din Kun, who is reportedly the representative of Prime Minister Fayyad. (JTA 10/15; Ma'ariv, 10/14/07; Yedioth Ahronoth, 10/9/07)

MISSILE DEFENSE: Defense Minister Ehud Barak announced last week that "within several years Israel will have protection from ninety percent of attempts to fire missiles and rockets into its territory. In the long term, the rate will be even higher." He was describing Israel's plans to implement a three-tiered missile interception program.

Israel is budgeting NIS 1.8 billion ($450 million) over the next five years on protection from short-range rockets, like Kassams that have been fired from Gaza and Katushas that have been fired from Lebanon. The Defense Ministry is also establishing a special office to deal with short-range rocket interception. This office will be charged with examining technologies that are available or in development in Israel and throughout the world that could be included in Israel's anti-rocket defense system. Northrup Grumman's laser-based Skyguard system is reportedly among the options this office will review. However, the Iron Dome system being developed by Rafael, an Israeli weapons manufacturer, has already been selected by Israel's Defense Ministry for development. The system may be ready for operational trials in four years.

Analyzing the financial implication of implementing this system, Alex Fishman notes in Yedioth Ahronoth that it "will need to cope with barrages of 20 to 30 rockets at once, be able to predict which rockets will fall in urban areas and which will not, and carry out the interception according to the order of the threat. The investment in this interception is extremely expensive. Each intercepting missile will cost approximately $30,000, and should Hezbollah decide to launch tens of thousands of short-range rockets during a war, the budgetary implications are clear." Fishman observes that Barak "refuses to get excited over the price. On the contrary. His clear order states: money will be no object when it comes to arming ourselves. In rough calculations, the interception of ten thousand rockets will cost the equivalent of 16 work days in the Israeli economy, and in his opinion the state can meet such costs, especially since the alternative is reinforcing buildings at an astronomical cost, enormous damage to the economy that could become paralyzed for a long time because of rocket attacks and severe harm to public morale, which could also affect soldiers at the front. This damage is inestimable."

Rafael is also collaborating with Raytheon to create a system called David's Slingshot, which is supposed to intercept medium-range Fajr and Zelzal rockets, which Hezbollah used during the 2006 war.

Israel Aircraft Industries is developing the Arrow 3, a more advanced model of the anti-ballistic missile that already protects Israel against long-range missiles. The decision to develop the Arrow 3 was reportedly made to defend against the growing potential of missile attack from Iran. According to an Israeli Air Force official, the advanced model is intended to be able to destroy an attacking missile "at a greater distance and altitude" if it is perceived to be a non-conventional attack.

Israel also announced last week that it is developing a laser system to defend its civilian planes against missiles. The new technology, called MUSIC, will employ a laser to "blind" incoming missiles. It is expected to be ready for use in three years. MUSIC is anticipated to replace Flight Guard, a system already installed on an unspecified number of El Al planes. Flight Guard employs flares to thwart heat-seeking missiles, but has been criticized as a fire hazard. (Yedioth Ahronoth, 10/10/07; JTA 10/11/07; Jerusalem Post, 10/10/07)