APN's Board of Directors, accompanied by members of the Executive Staff, will be on a fact finding mission to Israel, starting on June 17th. Watch this space for ongoing updates.

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Wednesday, June 20
Tuesday, June 19
Sunday, June 17
Friday, June 15

By Ori Nir
APN Spokesman

Jerusalem, June 21 - Americans for Peace Now's Board members, on their annual mission to Israel, received a fascinating glimpse Wednesday into the sense of turmoil, confusion, shame and despair among Palestinians.

Palestinian politicians and the most prominent Palestinian pollster gave our Board members an unmistakably grim account of the current Palestinian crisis. One called it the most severe crisis since 1948. Another said that it was even more devastating than the "nakba," the defeat that shattered the Palestinian society when the state of Israel was created. What makes this crisis so difficult for Palestinians to bear is that it was self-inflicted. "Palestinians did this with their own hands," said Sufian Abu-Zaida, a former minister in the Palestinian Authority cabinet and formerly a chief leader of the Fatah movement in the Gaza Strip.

Abu-Zaida said that more than six months ago he took note of Hamas' rise in Gaza and moved with his family to the West Bank. Now he is trying to help the Fatah movement go through the reform process that it has been avoiding for many years. Such a process, he said, is necessary for the movement, which supports a two state solution, to prevent Hamas from extending its control to the West Bank. It is also necessary, he explained, for Fatah to be able to retake the Hamas-controlled Gaza in the future.

Palestinian pollster Khalil Shikaki, a leading analyst of the Palestinian political scene, shared with our Board members the result of a new poll taken in the West Bank during last week's Hamas-Fatah fighting and in the Gaza Strip three days after the fighting subsided. The results from Gaza were still incomplete, and based on a partial sample.

Shikaki had good news and bad news. The good news was that despite the pessimism and distress, most Palestinians still support compromising with Israel, and support a political process that would result in a two-state solution to the conflict. Another piece of good news was that support for Hamas and its leaders is shrinking significantly, not only in the West Bank but also in the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip.

Here is some of Shikaki's data, yet unpublished, which could be considered good news. 70% of Gazans and 73% of West Bankers expressed support for the Arab League's peace initiative, which calls for an Israeli withdrawal to the pre-1967 lines in return for full peace and normalization with all the Arab states. A large majority also supported Palestinian reconciliation with Israel after a Palestinian state is established. Two-thirds of Palestinians, both in Gaza and the West Bank, supported an interim security de-escalation agreement with Israel that would include a mutual ceasefire.

According to Shikaki's findings, Hamas would lose both in presidential elections and in parliamentary elections, if they were held today. While only 50% said that they would participate in presidential elections that pitch President Mahmoud Abbas against Ismail Haniya (the deposed Hamas prime minister), 50% of those said that would support Abbas and 38% would support.

At the same time, both Abbas and Haniya enjoy very little trust among Palestinians, Shikaki said. Only 14% of those polled approved of Abbas' performance during the fighting and 11% approved of Haniya's performance.

Enthusiasm grows, however, if the Fatah candidate for presidency were to be Marwan Bargouthi, the charismatic leader who is serving five consecutive life sentences in an Israeli prison. Under this scenario, voter participation rises to 65%. In the West Bank, 62% said they would support Bargouthi; 30% said they would vote for Haniya. In Gaza 55% would vote for Bargouthi and 45% for Haniya.

This most recent poll shows a decrease in support for Hamas. If parliamentary elections were held today, only 27% said they would vote for Hamas. Shikaki's previous poll, taken earlier this spring, showed 37% support for Hamas in parliamentary elections. Currently, Hamas (and affiliated smaller parties) enjoys an almost 60% majority in the Palestinian Legislative Council.

Shikaki's findings indicate a sense of deep depression in the Palestinian public. 95% of West Bankers and 82% of Gazans said that the situation, overall, is bad or very bad. A quarter of those polled said that they are not proud to be Palestinian and more than a quarter said they would like to emigrate overseas. Asked whether they think a Palestinian state will be established, half of the respondents said they think it never will. Only 25% said they think there is a high or moderate probability that a Palestinian state will be established in the next 5 years.

"I have never seen a more depressed domestic environment" in terms of how the future is viewed and in terms of trust in the Palestinian leadership and institutions, "but the Palestinians' willingness to compromise (toward a deal with Israel) has not been eroded," Shikaki concluded.

Both Shikaki and Abu-Zaida didn't see much of a chance for a major political breakthrough in the foreseeable future. Neither did Hanna Siniora, the veteran Palestinian politician, publisher and businessman. Siniora's best case scenario is that the newly appointed emergency government headed by Salam Fayyad will serve for another 20 months, until the end of President Abbas' term. This will give Fatah and other moderate Palestinians a chance to reform, to build institutions and to prevail in the next elections, and then negotiate with Hamas from a position of power. This period might also allow Israel and moderate Palestinians to create conditions needed for the resumption of political negotiations in the future.

On Thursday we are meeting in Tel Aviv with leading Israeli experts on strategic affairs and public policy.