PALESTINIANS BACK NEW ELECTIONS: The esteemed Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) carried out a face-to-face survey of Palestinian public opinion initiated before shots were fired at Palestinian Authority (PA) Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh's car on December 15 and completed after President Mahmoud Abbas called for new elections a day later. PSR found that 61% of Palestinians supported holding early presidential and parliamentary elections and 37% opposed it. 56% agreed that the PA president has the right to call for early presidential and parliamentary elections and 38% disagreed.

PSR noted a decrease in public satisfaction with Hamas' performance from 42% three months ago to 33% in this poll. Moreover, only 30% of the respondents evaluate the performance of the "Executive Force," commanded by the Hamas-affiliated interior minister, as positive and contributing to the enforcement of law and order, while 51% evaluate its performance as negative and contributing to lawlessness and anarchy. At the same time, the PSR poll showed a significant decrease in the level of public satisfaction with the performance of President Abbas, from 55% three months ago to 40% in this poll.

More than 90% of the public described current Palestinian conditions as bad or very bad and only 2% described it as good. 87% said they and their families lack safety and security and 87% believed corruption exists in the PA. 69% said corruption will increase or remain the same in the future.

According to the PSR poll, if early parliamentary elections are held today, Hamas would receive 36% of the vote and Fatah would receive 42%. 12% would go to other lists and 10% remain undecided. This shows a widening of the gap between Fatah and Hamas from 3 percentage points three months ago. If early presidential elections were held today and Mahmud Abbas and Ismail Haniyeh were the only candidates, Abbas would receive 46% of the vote and Haniyeh would receive 45%. If the presidential race was between Marwan Barghouti and Khalid Misha'l, Barghouti would receive 57% of the vote and Misha'l would receive 36%. The margin of error in the PSR poll is 3%.

In a telephone survey of the Palestinian public initiated hours Abbas' call for new elections, Near East Consulting (NEC) found that 68% supported Abbas's call, while 32% opposed it. 60% of Palestinians believed that Hamas should participate in the early presidential and legislative elections. 63% believed that the call for early elections will bring a solution to the internal crisis, while 37% feel that it might intensify the crisis.

A separate NEC poll completed before Abbas's call for new elections, found that 92% believed that Abbas should act to end the internal crisis. 52% believed that he should call for early elections, and 30% thought that he should dissolve the current government and establish an emergency government. 56% of Palestinians blamed Fatah and Hamas equally for the failure to form a unity government. Although 71% feared that the dissolution of the current government would intensify the conflict between Fatah and Hamas, 56% said they would support Abbas if he were to do so and form an emergency government. 59% did not think that a civil war is likely. Only 4 personalities were perceived as capable of leading the Palestinian people by a majority of the public: Marwan Barghouti (78%), Mahmoud Abbas (61%), Ismael Hanieh (61%), and Mustafa Barghouti (58%).

The earlier NEC poll showed 85% of Palestinians supported the cease-fire with Israel, and 77% supported a peace settlement. 61% believed that Hamas should change its position towards the elimination of Israel. 60% opposed bomb attacks inside Israel, while 62% opposed the continuation of launching missiles from Gaza to Israel. Only 30% believed that there is a partner for peace in Israel, while 77% said that there is a Palestinian peace partner.

The margin of error is 3.8% for the most recent NEC poll and 3.4% for the second poll. Both NEC polls were conducted by telephone, while the PSR poll was conducted face-to-face. (Many public opinion experts believe that face-to-face interviews are a more accurate method for polling the Palestinian public). (IMRA, 12/16 & 12/17/06; PSR, 12/17/06)

SURVEY OF PALESTINIAN FORCES: Abbas's elite Presidential Guard has 4,000 men, up from 2,500 members when Hamas took power in March. Also under Abbas's control, General Intelligence is believed to have 5,000 members. National Security Forces under Abbas's command, such as Military Intelligence and Naval Police, have up to 30,000 members.

Police and Preventive Security forces theoretically fall under the jurisdiction of the Hamas-controlled Interior Ministry. But they are dominated by Fatah loyalists. Their total strength is estimated at about 30,000. Hamas says its "Executive Force" has grown to nearly 6,000. The force appears to be well equipped.

The United States and Israel have also backed a proposal by Abbas to let about 1,000 members of the Badr Brigade, a Fatah-dominated force based in Jordan, into the Palestinian territories to reinforce Abbas's guard. Asked about U.S. assistance to Abbas's security forces, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said on Friday that the Bush administration would request "tens of millions of dollars" to "support General Dayton's security plan." State Department spokesman Sean McCormack had earlier explained: "We're working with the Congress to get authorization for more money to be released so that we can assist in that regard: providing logistical support, uniforms and that sort of thing, helping out with training, helping out with materiel," (JTA, 12/15/06; State Dept. 12/16/06; Reuters, 12/17/06)

FOOT DRAGGING: Israeli Attorney General Menachem Mazuz recently wrote to Defense Minister Amir Peretz asking him to stop delaying and issue four amendments to the administrative orders that govern the West Bank. The amendments were recommended in the report of former State Prosecutor Talia Sasson, whom the Sharon Government asked to research the problem of illegal outposts, and are intended to help prevent illegal construction in settlements and outposts. Mazuz also asked that the Civil Administration appoint prosecutors that would be authorized to seek indictments against settlers who build illegally. This is the third request by the attorney general in the past year on the matter. The first request was made of former Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz, and the second was submitted to Peretz earlier this year. Mazuz wrote that the process is stuck because of a disagreement between the defense and finance ministries over the funds required to implement the legal changes.

Mazuz's letter points out that "Civil Administration's figures reveal that the pattern of construction in illegal outposts continues, including the construction of permanent structures." According to Mazuz, 168 illegal buildings were discovered in settlements and outposts between January and September 2006. These figures, wrote Mazuz, "require immediate progress on the issuance of the orders for law enforcement over the illegal construction and the reinforcement of manpower in the supervision unit of the Civil Administration." The attorney general added, "According to international law, it is the responsibility of the IDF commander in the territories to maintain law in the area and to prevent the erosion of property rights." State Prosecutor Gilad Sherman publicly acknowledged last week that "it is clear to all that the status of law enforcement in the territories is not good."

Knesset Member Ophir Pines (Labor), who is challenging Peretz in the race for the party's leadership, attacked Peretz saying, "This sounds completely imaginary. Shame on us that we reached the point where the attorney general reproaches Amir Peretz, the defense minister. I expected the exact opposite to happen, that Peretz would rush Mazuz and demand that he take legal action against those who reside in the illegal outposts. I didn't believe that a defense minister of our choosing would hinder the evacuation of outposts."

Following press reports of Mazuz's letter, on Wednesday Peretz ordered General Yair Naveh to sign the four amendments and asked General Gabbi Ashkenazi, the Defense Ministry's director general, to immediately resolve the financial issues with the Finance Ministry. Peretz's office denied receiving Mazuz's letter.

In related news, a brief submitted to the Israeli High Court of Justice on Sunday requested to postpone hearings on a petition requiring the IDF to carry out demolition orders issued against all of the houses at the outpost of Migron. According to the brief, Defense Minister Peretz would like the court to defer dealing with the petition, filed by Peace Now and some of the land owners, so that he can negotiate with settlement leaders over their voluntary evacuation. The state's court filing confirmed that the outpost was built on private property and that "there is no legal possibility of accepting its existence in the long term." (Ha'aretz, 12/13, 12/14 & 12/18/06)

PRECONDITIONS: In an interview with the Washington Post's David Ignatius, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem, laid our a vision of "a comprehensive peace-including Syria, the Palestinians and Lebanon" based on negotiations without preconditions. In Moallem's words: "There is no precondition. A constructive dialogue has to start without preconditions... You don't put demands. You put agreed goals. Under this, you put each side's commitment to achieve the goals in a parallel way. This is how we understand constructive dialogue." In an interview with the Italian newspaper La Repubblica Syrian President Assad also called on Israel to return to negotiations, saying "I say to Olmert: 'Take a chance. Discover if we are bluffing or not.'"

In Israel, Mouallem's statements are seen as a change from earlier Syrian statements that set Israel's commitment to return to the 1967 lines as a condition for beginning negotiations. Former Mossad director and Labor Knesset Member Danny Yatom called on Prime Minister Olmert "to show leadership and rise to the challenge of peace set by Syria." Yatom also warned that rejecting the call "could lead to war." Even former Prime Minister and Opposition Leader Binyamin Netanyahu reportedly called for immediate negotiations with Syria.

Vice Premier Shimon Peres on Saturday rejected Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem's call saying, "halting the activities of terror headquarters in Damascus and stopping Khaled Mashaal's activities in Syria are preconditions for a dialogue as far as we are concerned."

Ma'ariv's Ben Caspit commented on Sunday that "we usually say of the Palestinians that they have never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity. The Syrians can say the same about us. We need to admit the truth: for peace with Syria, we have to give up the Golan Heights. But the Golan Heights is a beautiful, beloved area, populated with the best of people. It is also quiet there. Why should we give up quiet territory? After all, we give up territory only when it is not quiet. Under fire and pressure. We understand only force. All this would be tolerated if we had not gotten into a situation where the existential threat rolls toward us from the east, on the tense road from Tehran, through Damascus, Beirut and Gaza. Its disconnection is critical. Even when it is late, like now. Better late than never."

A day later, Caspit protested American pressure on Israel not to talk to Syria, saying, "Either we should admit, loud and clear, that we are an American protectorate and demand that at least we be treated accordingly, or we should show leadership, and Ehud Olmert should get up and go to Washington, and close the door behind him and explain to the President of the United States that when an Arab country on Israel's border overtly extends a hand in peace to Israel, Israel cannot and must not reject it rudely, arrogantly and stupidly. There are a thousand and one ways to examine the intentions of Syria, for example to agree on a time-table which would enable each side to deliver its goods to the other side by stages, Israel must not be the side setting preconditions, even if the United States wants it to do so." (Washington Post, 12/15/06; Ynet, 12/15 & 12/16/06; Ma'ariv, 12/17 & 12/18/06)

AMERICAN ENGAGEMENT: Former Secretary of State Colin Powell, in an interview with CBS news yesterday, called on the United States to speak to Syria directly and recalled his successful diplomatic engagement with Syria that resulted in ending Hezbollah rocket fire at the time. A USA Today/Gallup survey last week also found that three out of four Americans said they supported the three major recommendations made by the Iraq Study Group: direct talks with Iran and Syria, withdrawing most U.S. combat troops by March 2008, and beginning a new push to resolve the Israel-Palestinian conflict.

59% of likely American voters think that it is important that a solution to the problems between Israel and the Palestinians be found, according to a UPI/Zogby poll. Americans think there is plenty of blame to go around for the Israel-Palestinian trouble - 47% blame both sides. However, there is a clear U.S. tilt in favor of Israel on this question - while 37% blame Palestinians for the breakdown in the peace process, just 10% cite Israel for the current failure.

Only 34% of respondents said they believe the Bush administration is doing a good or excellent job handling the current Israeli-Palestinian conflict, while 63% hold a negative opinion of his handling of the situation. Asked how the Administration should conduct itself, 56% said it should steer a middle course showing favoritism to neither Israel nor the Palestinians. Just less than half of all respondents (49%) agree that the U.S. is currently acting as a fair and honest broker and 57% believe the U.S. should restart the peace process by pressuring both sides. (Zogby, 12/13/06; Reuters, 12/13/06; Ynet, 12/18)