ISRAELIS BACK CEASEFIRE, PEACE PLAN: 66% of all Israelis support the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and 19% oppose it, according to a survey carried out for Israel Radio on November 29^th. More than three-quarters of Kadima voters and Labor voters backed the agreement. Among Likud voters, supporters of the ceasefire outnumber opponents 44% to 22%. Even among the hard-line Yisrael Beiteinu voters, the number of supporters (43%) and opponents (48%) was nearly tied. Yet 68% of Yisrael Beiteinu voters said that party leader Avigdor Lieberman should leave the cabinet. When asked "Do you support or oppose the plan of Prime Minister Olmert that includes: an arrangement in agreement with the Palestinians, based on foregoing extensive territory and the establishment of a Palestinian state with territorial contiguity in Judea and Samaria, in return for an end to terror and cancellation of the right to return?" 47% of Israelis said they support it and 41% said they oppose it.

Deputy Prime Minister Shimon Peres said last week the cease-fire in the Gaza Strip could lead to negotiations on a permanent settlement. Peres advocated evacuating most of the settlements and concentrating their residents in an area totaling about eight percent of the West Bank. (Israel Radio, 11/29/06; IMRA, 11/30/06)

SECURITY CABINET LIMITS MILITARY: Israel's security cabinet reportedly rejected a proposal yesterday to resume offensive operations in Gaza and barred the IDF from arresting Palestinians in the West Bank without explicit approval from senior military echelons. The cabinet also decided that "targeted killings" will now require approval from both Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Defense Minister Amir Peretz. Previously, the approval of IDF Chief of Staff Dan Halutz was sufficient. "At the moment there is no reason to sacrifice the points we have accumulated in the international community in favor of attacks on a number of terrorists who do not listen to the Palestinian organizations who are holding their fire," said Olmert. Significant IDF activity in the West Bank continues, however. The evening after the cabinet decision, the IDF arrested 15 "wanted men" in the West Bank. (Ha'aretz, 12/4/06; Israel Radio, 12/4/06; Ma'ariv, 12/4/06)

ENGAGING MODERATE ARAB STATES: Prime Minister Ehud Olmert may soon meet with officials in Riyadh in order to examine the possibility of moderate Arab nations forming a bloc to help resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and establish a bilateral peace agreement. According to a report in the British Sunday Times, this meeting is not Olmert's idea but a request pushed by the Bush Administration. The latest news follows reports and denials of an Olmert meeting in Amman last September with Saudi Prince Bandar bin-Sultan, who is considered to be of King Abdullah's close advisers. Israeli government sources believe that the Saudis are placing the "weight of the kingdom on the side of the moderates inside the Palestinian Authority."

This development also follows Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni's presence at a conference in Finland of European Union and Middle Eastern foreign ministers, including Syria, Lebanon and the Palestinian Authority last week. The foreign ministers of Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt and Jordan also attended.

The Israeli Council for Peace and Security, an organization made up of retired senior security officials, recommended that Israel enter into a dialogue with the "Arab Quartet" (Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Persia Gulf countries) on the basis of the Arab League Peace Initiative. The group's new position paper noted that strengthening the moderate countries in the region, through steps such as a dialogue over the Saudi plan, was one way to stop the "Iranian momentum" in the region. The Council also published a statement Sunday making the point that "terror cannot be put down by purely military means. Political measures are necessary." In the statement signed by Maj. Gen. (Ret.) Danny Rothschild and all other members of the Council's leadership, the Council also called on "the Government of Israel to turn to political avenues in confronting the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The Council supports efforts to achieve a cease fire that is as wide as possible, at the same time taking substantive steps to ease the lives of the Palestinians population. It is incumbent upon the Government of Israel to pursue all peace initiatives, and to enter into negotiations with the intention of achieving a concrete outcome." (Israel Radio, 11/28; Jerusalem Post, 12/2 & 11/30/06; Council on Peace and Security, 12/3/06; Army Radio 12/3/06)

A LITTLE HELP FROM A FRIEND: Knesset Member Haim Oron (Meretz) visited popular Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti, imprisoned by Israel since March 2002, on numerous occasions over the last two years. Oron conveyed messages back and forth, allowing Barghouti to have influence over the stability of the Palestinian Authority, to prevent Hamas from gaining strength, and to retain open channels of communication between Israel and the Palestinians. Oron also shuttled between Barghouti and Israeli prime ministers Sharon and Olmert. This channel of communication helped to bring about the ceasefire announced last week. Barghouti - who has been sentenced to five consecutive life terms, has been mentioned as a Palestinian who might be released in a future Israeli-Palestinian prisoner exchange. (Ynet, 11/27/06; Yedioth Ahronoth, 11/28/06; Jerusalem Post, 11/27/06)

AMERICAN INVOLVEMENT WANTED: In an op-ed published Friday, Rabbi Eric Yoffie, president of the Union for Reform Judaism, suggested "three specific steps" American Jews should take: "First, call for direct American involvement in solving the Arab-Israeli conflict. only Washington has the credibility and the power to create the conditions for negotiations and diplomatic progress. Always desirable, American involvement is now essential, and serves both American and Israeli interests.It is bizarre that the right-wing Jewish leaders who demand American action against Iran fail to comprehend that progress on the Israeli-Palestinian front will make such action far more likely...

"Second, vigorously oppose extremist voices in the Jewish community, both here and in Israel.Silence can be mistaken for acquiescence and can undermine the moral foundations of our community. Third, even when a lasting peace remains a distant prospect, we need continually to affirm the first principles that tie us, as Jews and Americans, to Israel. Too many in our community, preferring to focus on Arab fanaticism, choose to remain silent on these principles, even though they are shared by most Israelis.we see a two-state solution as the only viable answer to the current crisis; we know that additional Israeli settlement beyond the security fence will make such a solution impossible and will condemn Israelis and Palestinians to an endless hell of war and death." (Forward, 12/1/06)

FINAL STATUS IS EASY: Israeli author Amos Oz wrote last week that "the ceasefire between the Israelis and Palestinians, should it hold up, is the first step. It should be followed by at least three more steps: The release of captives and prisoners, the establishment of a new Palestinian government that does not espouse Israel's elimination, but rather, coexistence, and the start of negotiations for a comprehensive Israeli-Palestinian peace deal. perhaps these days we see a change emerging on both sides. The sense of dead-end and the fear of the vicious cycle are apparently shared by both. If the ceasefire indeed takes root and if it's followed by the release of captives and prisoners and the establishment of a pragmatic Palestinian government - we may be at the outset of a new move: We do not need another international conference, but rather, direct negotiations between the sides.

"Negotiations over what? Not for another "realignment" and not for another "Hudna" or "Tahadiya", but rather, talks on a comprehensive, all-inclusive bilateral agreement to resolve all components of the Israel-Palestine war.

"What will this agreement include? Here of all places we find hope: It's found in the fact that both Israelis and Palestinians know deep in their heart what will be found in this agreement, and what will not be there. How much time, suffering, and innocent blood will the leaders of Israel and Palestine need before they reach the place that both peoples, with a heavy heart, already reached? The ceasefire, if it holds up, may perhaps be the first flickering light at the end of the darkness." (Ynet, 11/27/06)

OLMERT'S RECORD: Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's "peace" speech last week provided an opportunity for Israeli pundits to review his track record so far. Writing in Yedioth Ahronoth, Shimon Shiffer commented that "lurking behind the speech in which Prime Minister Ehud Olmert yesterday extended his hand in peace towards the Palestinians lies the painful assumption that if, ultimately, the IDF is forced to reoccupy the Gaza Strip, the prime minister is going to be able to say that he offered a different way." Nonetheless, he quotes a senior aide to Olmert, "does anyone have a better proposal than trying to achieve calm by means of dialogue?" Shiffer continues with his analysis: "One has to admit that after many months of warfare and military presence in Gaza Strip, the IDF has failed to prevent Kassam rocket fire on Sderot. Furthermore, despite the devoted intelligence work that is done by the GSS in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip to prevent terror attacks, the Palestinian organizations' motivation to strike at Israel has not diminished but, rather, to the contrary."

Ma'ariv's Ben Caspit also quoted an Olmert aide with a different message: "A speech of hot air.he is ready and ready and ready, but everything is contingent upon the Quartet's conditions and an end to terrorism. Nothing here was new." In Caspit's view, "there is something to that. On the other hand, the principal points of the speech are the real Ehud Olmert. That is his plan. He presented it anew before President George Bush in their most recent meeting in Washington, one-on-one. He spoke about very significant concessions: the establishment of a Palestinian state with temporary borders, retaining 12% of the West Bank in Israeli possession, 'for the time being,' releasing a large number of prisoners.on condition that the terrorism stop, that the Palestinian government recognize Israel and previous agreements, and an interim arrangement towards a Palestinian state begins to take on concrete form and shape. Those are his tenets. That is the solution that he envisages. That is what he wants. The question is whether he believes in that as well."

Meretz leader Yossi Beilin reviews the same speech in the context of Olmert's two other major addresses since becoming Prime Minister. "All three are good speeches. Committed to peace, public courage, willingness to extend a hand in agreement, and recognition of the need to pay a price. It would appear that the former Likud member who defied Menahem Begin on the Right, who voted against the Camp David Accords in 1978, who believed for years in a greater Israel, has understood the demographic problem and undergone a metamorphosis. as prime minister, he appears to be leading the Left's traditional policy of two states, founding a Palestinian state on most of the West Bank, and doing what many Kadima supporters expected - that a man of the Right would divide the country.

"This didn't happen after the first two speeches. Very different things did. The characterization of Mahmoud Abbas as an irrelevant leader. The policy in the territories - roadblocks, checkpoints, Palestinians working in Israel, freedom of movement inside the territories - all these were made harsher than before. Instead of making a valiant effort, as he promised, to start intensive negotiations with Abbas and his people ahead of establishing a permanent border between two peoples, [Olmert] wasted his time in negotiations over the meeting with the Palestinian leader itself, claiming - and then taking it back - that the head of the Palestinian Authority was not open to talks, etc., etc. The disappointment in Olmert spread, and the general feeling was that he was not 'supplying the goods' - not diplomatically, not socially, and not on security.

"The kidnapping of soldiers in the South and the North pushed him into a decision on an extensive [military] option in the South and a war in the North. the price was heavy, and after some twenty days of adulation the belief in him and his colleagues began to fade, until it reached lower levels than any previous prime minister had known.

"Moving to the Right did him no good. The hints that Israel would know what to do on Iran might have excited his listeners, but didn't make Israelis feel any better. Neither the promise that as long as he is prime minister, he won't agree to give up the Golan Heights, nor his unnecessary decision to bring Avigdor Lieberman's Israel Beitenu into the coalition, strengthened Kadima's public image or his own position... With all this in the background, Olmert stood on Ben-Gurion's grave to make his third speech. If only he's serious this time." (Jerusalem Post, 11/27/06; Yedioth Ahronoth, 11/28; Ma'ariv, 11/28)

STRADDLING THE ISRAEL-LEBANON BORDER: Israel's security cabinet approved an interim solution regarding the village of Ghajar, which straddles the Israel-Lebanon border. According to the agreement between Israel, the UN, and Lebanon, UNIFIL will have responsibility over the Lebanese portion of the village and the IDF will withdraw to the southern portion. The construction of a fence between the village and Israel is under consideration. About 80% of the homes in the village will now come under the control of UNIFIL, and some in Israel would like to be rid of the village entirely. Ma'ariv quoted a senior security source saying that "it is unthinkable that the residents of Ghajar, who are not loyal to the State of Israel at all, continue to enjoy the benefits given to them as Israeli citizens. A permanent status arrangement there must include evacuation and compensation to these people." Attorney General Menahem Mazuz previously rejected a proposal to transfer the residents of southern Ghajar to Lebanese territory. Mazuz ruled that, legally, it was not possible to carry out a transfer of a population with Israeli citizenship out of the borders of the country. Ghajar council spokesman, Najib Khatib, yesterday protested that Ghajar's residents were not consulted, saying: "We are in shock at the conduct of the Israeli government. We, the residents of Ghajar, have to hear from the media about our fate? We are actually under the responsibility of the State of Israel, so why does it treat us worse than the way animals are treated?" Resident Mundar Kamhouse said, "I don't think that they would have made a decision about Ramat Aviv (an affluent Tel Aviv suburb) without consulting them." (Ma'ariv, 12/3 & 12/4/06)

MULTINATIONAL FORCE IN GAZA: Italy has suggested to Israel that a multi-national force be deployed in order to preserve the ceasefire agreement with the Palestinian Authority. According to the plan, troops would deploy along the Philadelphi corridor between Gaza and Israel in order to prevent arms smuggling. Foreign Minister Tzippi Livni is reportedly examining a proposal in which the force will operate in a format similar to the one used by UNIFIL in southern Lebanon today. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is reportedly inclined to oppose the idea. (Ma'ariv, 12/3/06; Army Radio, 12/3/06)

ROCKET SCIENCE: A number of Israeli and American defense firms - including Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Rafael Industries, Israel Aircraft Industries, and Israel Military Industries - are competing to build a system capable of defending against Kassam and Katyusha rockets.

Rafael - Israel's Armament Development Authority - is developing a combination of a laser and a missile interceptor that could be deployed outside the Gaza Strip within a year and a half.

A Lockheed Martin anti-aircraft system was successfully repurposed to destroy Kassam and Katyusha rockets in lab tests. However, this system is not yet operational. It uses radar for identifying suspicious objects in the air and two very fast cannons firing 35 mm shells. Each shell contains about 152 small bullets. The system is constructed so that when the radar system identifies a suspicious object in the air, shells are automatically fired at it. These explode in the air and scatter bullets in all directions. Officials at Lockheed Martin have proposed that the IDF purchase the system at a cost of about $15 million per system.

Israel Military Industries is developing a weapon called "Magic Shield," which is based on an inexpensive rocket that is supposed to explode near the Kassam rocket and destroy it in the air.

Northrop Grumman is pushing "Skyguard," which uses a chemical laser to intercept the rockets and is based on technology developed for the "Nautilus" system, which was initiated in the 1990s for the U.S. and Israeli militaries. Northrop Grumman has claimed that Skyguard could be operational within a year and a half with a $150 million investment. (Jerusalem Post, 11/28/06; Ma'ariv, 11/30/06)