ISRAELI INTELLIGENCE WANTS TALKS WITH SYRIA: The IDF Intelligence Branch recommended to Prime Minister Ehud Olmert that the political echelon "examine positively" the signals that Syrian President Bashar Assad has been sending about his willingness to renew peace negotiations. The recommendation was made Wednesday at a meeting Olmert held to prepare for his trip to the United States. The meeting was also attended by Defense Minister Amir Peretz, Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz, Director of Military Intelligence Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin, Mossad Director Meir Dagan and other senior officials. IDF Intelligence Branch officials explained that the Syria's harmful activity, such as supplying arms to Hezbollah, is intended to send Israel the message that it has much to gain from renewing negotiations. Mossad Director Meir Dagan reportedly disagreed with this assessment.

An IDF General Staff assessment last week predicted that Syria and Hezbollah might start a war of attrition against Israel within the next two years, peaking in summer 2007. The generals expect Israel to face infantry forces equipped with anti-tank weapons, commando units, missiles, and incursions through tunnels. The Israeli military preparations include the development of systems to intercept the sort of rockets used by Hezbollah to target Haifa during the recent war, replacing older tanks with advanced tanks, grouping all special forces into a single new division, and postponing plans to shorten the duration of conscript service.

Israeli intelligence believes that Hezbollah has refilled its stock of weapons to a level surpassing the quantity it held before the war. Hezbollah Secretary General Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah recently boasted a supply of 30,000 rockets. Israeli political sources have also been complaining about Hezbollah's presence in south Lebanon. (Yedioth Ahronoth, 11/12/06; Ha'aretz, 11/6/06; Israel Radio 11/8/06; Army Radio 11/12/06; Sunday Times [UK] 11/12/06)

IDLE CHATTER: Syria's Foreign Minister Walid Moualem said Monday during a press conference in Damascus that "we hope to have in 2007 a peace process to settle the issue" and that "we appreciate the Israeli voices who call for the resumption of the peace process with Syria." If Israel resumes talks, Moualem promised, "it will find Syria ready to resume peace negotiations."

51% of Israelis believe that if Syria and Israel do not reach a peace agreement war will break our between the two counties sooner or later, while 40% believe that the status quo could last for years, according to a survey by the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research at Tel Aviv University. The survey found that 57% of Israelis think that Israel's national security situation has worsened compared to a year ago while 29% say that has not changed. Asked which of the following ministers could be most trusted to lead a process of formulating Israel's security policy, only 6% chose Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, while 2% picked Defense Minister Amir Peretz. Internal Security Minister Avi Dichter, Foreign Minister Tzippi Livni, and Strategic Affairs Minister Avigdor Lieberman tied at 17% each. The highest rate - 31% - was reserved for none of the above, even though this option was not offered. (JTA, 11/7/06; Ha'aretz, 11/7/06; Tami Steinmetz Center Survey, 11/9/06)

CALLING SYRIA'S BLUFF: A Ha'aretz editorial this week argued that the Olmert-Bush meeting would "be a good opportunity for Olmert to announce that he is calling on Syrian President Bashar Assad to begin immediate negotiations for peace with Israel. Since the cease-fire in Lebanon went into effect three months ago, Assad has repeatedly declared his intention to renew peace talks with Israel in order to return the Golan Heights to Syria. the supreme obligation of the national leadership is to exhaust the diplomatic options and prevent war, which will have no benefit to Israel. The war will only claim lives and unnecessary destruction on both sides, and at its conclusion, deliberations on 'removing the cause for war' and returning the Golan to the Syrians will be resumed.

"Since coming to power, Olmert has expressed his hesitation in negotiating with Syria and the Palestinians. But his justifications regarding the Palestinians that 'there is no partner' and no responsible government do not apply to Syria. The regime in Damascus is not friendly to Israel, and maintains close ties with some of its bitter enemies, but there is no doubt that it holds power in Syria and maintains with diligence the agreement over the disengagement of forces on the Golan Heights. Despite his strategic alliance with Iran, Assad is not party to calls of Israel's destruction by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, but is calling for dialogue and an agreement.

"The outright rejection of peace offers from Syria without seeking clarifications and holding an in-depth discussion is irresponsible and an invitation for the next war. The price of an agreement with the Syrians, a withdrawal from the Golan Heights, is known and difficult for Israelis to accept. But Olmert has not even carried out minimal diplomatic clarifications or presentation of Israel's legitimate demands over water arrangements, security and normalization, as was done by the five prime ministers preceding him, who negotiated with Assad's father." (Ha'aretz, 11/7/06)

CONFLICT OF INTEREST: Yossi Beilin writes that "the Bush administration is in the midst of what it calls 'a war against terror,' which includes, among other things, a sharp distinction between the 'axis of evil' and those that are not connected to it, an effort to establish democracies in undemocratic countries, and the use of force against anyone who endangers world peace.

"Because of these principles, the U.S. forced Israel to allow Hamas to participate in the democratic elections for the Palestinian Legislative Council that were held this past January, and in the name of these principles, the U.S. is boycotting the Hamas government. And these are the principles that led the U.S. to prevent Israel from conducting negotiations with Syria without preconditions.

"This is the situation at the start of the 21st century: The Arab League is calling on Israel to achieve an overall peace with its neighbors on the basis of the borders that existed between the sides on the eve of the Six-Day War, 40 years ago, promising full normalization of Israel's relations with the Arab world under these conditions; Syrian President Bashar Assad is calling on Israel to begin peace negotiations with him immediately without preconditions for the sake of a Syrian-Israeli peace; Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is calling on Israel to begin negotiations for an Israeli-Palestinian peace and promises to bring the results of the negotiations to a national referendum.

"A government such as that of the late prime minister Yitzhak Rabin would have come to the U.S. and stated clearly that Israel has a national interest in completing the circle of peace, that democratization is important and dear to us but cannot be a condition for peace with the Arab world. A peace government would have done everything possible to reach an agreement with the Palestinians with the indirect backing of Hamas, and to reach a peace agreement with the Syrians that involves giving up the Golan Heights.

"The difference in interests has turned into a conflict of interests between the U.S. and Israel, but in its weakness, the Olmert government finds itself in a situation where it does not wish to and cannot protest against that. The price that we are all liable to pay could prove to be too high." (Ha'aretz, 11/10/2006)

OUTPOST DEAL IN THE WORKS: A draft agreement between Olmert and the Settlers Council would fully evacuate fifteen illegal West Bank outposts, partially evacuate four, and retroactively legalize eight. The draft agreement was faxed by Member of Knesset Otniel Schneller (Kadima), who serves as Olmert's representative in negotiations with the Settlers Council, to settler leaders. Schneller denied the existence of the document last night, and said, "there are various papers, we have reached understandings on principles, but there is a long way to go before we reach an operative plan."

Among the outposts slated for evacuation, according to the agreement are: Mitzpe Yitzhar, Hazon David, Yitzhar South, Havat Mevo Horon, Havat Hashaked, Pnei Adam, Negohot West, Asael, Yatir South, Havat Maon, Mitzpe Assaf and Migron. The outposts that will be legalized, according to the proposed agreement are: Bruchin, Alonei Shilo, El Matan, Givat Hahish, Magen Dan, Havat Yair, Mitzpe Dani, Havat Skali and Havat Ronen.

Meanwhile, for the first time in three months, residents of illegal outposts were handed eviction notices last week. The outpost in question is Yitzhar South, whose residents received notices for them to leave the place with their belongings immediately. These orders are seen as a prerequisite for the police to use force to evict the outpost. Dror Etkes, head of Peace Now's Settlements Watch, responded, "Defense Minister Amir Peretz will be judged not according to the number of notices he issues, but the number of outposts he demolishes." (Ma'ariv 11/13/06; Hatzofe 11/7/06; Ynet 11/6/06)

GUARDING THE HENHOUSE: Labor Party ministers voted unanimously to give one of their seats on the ministerial committee charged with implementing the recommendations of the Sasson Report to Avigdor Lieberman. The seat in question was vacated by Ophir Pines when he resigned to protest Lieberman's entry into the cabinet. The committee had been established to promote the evacuation of illegal outposts in wake of the findings of the Sasson Report. Earlier this year, Lieberman announced five conditions - including the cancellation of the Sasson report and the evacuation of the illegal outposts - for joining Olmert's government. The Labor Party, however, adopted into its platform a complete plan for evacuating outposts that had been presented by Amir Peretz and Pines. The nine ministers who serve on this committee are Meir Sheetrit (chairman), Tzippi Livni, Amir Peretz, Yitzhak Herzog, Avi Dichter, Yaakov Edri, Rafi Eitan, Yitzhak Cohen, and - now - Avigdor Lieberman. Pines criticized the move, saying, "all the positions I held as a minister were divided up among the Labor Party ministers with the speed of lighting, but they gave this specific position to Lieberman."

The Sasson Report included a discussion of political obstacles to law enforcement against settlers, "for example, transporting a trailer within the West Bank without a permit is a crime that carries a five-year jail sentence. But no court is authorized to try this crime... [in addition] without the defense minister's approval, a demolition order will not be carried out. Without the orders of the prime minister and the defense minister, an unauthorized outpost will not be evacuated." Such political interference in law enforcement is at the heart of a Peace Now petition before the Israeli High Court of Justice concerning the illegal outpost of Migron. In that case, the Civil Administration wrote that "although the stop-work orders and the final demolition orders for the outpost buildings were approved, as far as the demolition orders are concerned, they will be carried out subject to an assessment of the security situation and in accordance with the approval of the political leadership." Talia Sasson commented this week that "no democratic sovereign state would let the political leadership be responsible for enforcing the law. That is a fundamental principle behind the rule of law and separation of powers. But the norm in the territories is that there simply is no law enforcement - certainly not for these types of crime, crimes of planning and construction." (Yedioth Ahronoth, 11/9/06; Ha'aretz, 11/7/06)

LESSONS OF BEIT HANOUN: In Ma'ariv, Felix Frisch asks whether artillery fire at the Gaza Strip contributes to Israel's security. "And the answer to this important question is-no, not really. About half a year ago, when Ma'ariv published the reasons that high-ranking IDF officers are against artillery fire at the Gaza Strip, because it was ineffective against the Kassam rocket launchers, the commander of the Gaza Division at the time, Brig. Gen. Aviv Kochavi, complained and showed diagrams and correlations clearly showing that the artillery fire was in fact effective. The commander who replaced Kochavi, Brig. Gen. Moshe Chico Tamir, came to the Gaza Strip and stopped the artillery fire almost entirely, for precisely this reason-it is not effective. The inquiries after the war in Lebanon showed one important thing clearly: guerilla and terror have no shape, no bases, no tanks, and they shoot, these bastards, from inside population centers. Any dime store expert on terror and guerilla fighting can tell you that you have to fight against them by means of intelligence superiority, advanced technology, accurate ordnance, with small, easily maneuverable and trained units, who surprise the terror fighters in their home quarters."

Also writing in Ma'ariv, Amit Cohen wrote that "surgical operations-if what was done in Beit Hanoun can be considered a 'surgical operation'-are ineffective. As long as the IDF masses forces in a certain area, the terrorists withdraw to another area and operate from there. Dozens of Palestinians are killed in operations of this type, but the organizations' motivation to continue to act is not diminished. Their members will continue to fight next time too. The attempt to 'sear the consciousness,' 'change the operating disk,' or any other expression that means applying pressure to the local population, is also an abject failure. It failed in the southern Gaza Strip, where tunnels are being dug, and it also failed in the north, from where rockets are being fired. It has failed because the Palestinian population does not want to, and mainly is unable to, stop the terror organizations. If anyone on our side still believes that applying greater pressure will cause the Palestinian population to 'identify' with the Israeli interests, they may be the ones who should change the operating disk."

Yet, Alex Fishman wrote that the military operation could be repeated. "[The operation] included a takeover of a dense urban area for a week, while exacting a heavy price from the armed Hamas units, as part of the preparations for more extensive activity in other areas. The intention was not to block the Kassam rockets, and therefore, as per the goals that the Southern Command set itself, the operation was very successful.The Hamas army was still unable to effectively oppose the IDF entry, which enabled the soldiers to practice urban warfare and the takeover of neighborhoods. For a week, Beit Hanoun was under occupation. The IDF took men aged 16-45 out of the houses, carried out interrogations, clashed with armed men. Dozens were transferred to Israel for further interrogation. It is no wonder that IDF officials were pleased. They tested the model-and it works. The next stage was supposed to include a more complex takeover of a more problematic area. At some point, this stage will probably arrive as well." Fishman also writes that, for Hamas, "Beit Hanoun is a heroic story... On the eve of the IDF incursion, internal polls pointed at a slight erosion in Hamas's strength. Anarchy was on the rise. A week before the operation, ten people were killed in clashes between Hamas and Fatah. Employees who were not paid went on strike. Everything was headed in the direction of an internal blowup. All the signs pointed at impending civil war. In the course of the combat, all this disappeared. True, during this week eight violent incidents took place in the Gaza Strip, but all were criminal incidents. The battle between Hamas and Fatah was put on hold." (Ma'ariv 11/8 & 11/9/06; Yedioth Ahronoth 11/10/06)

JERUSALEM GERRYMANDER: Michal Sion, spokeswoman for Bimkom - Planners for Planning Rights, criticized a proposal to expand Jerusalem's municipal border westward to add 15,000 new housing units and tens of thousands of dunams. "A Jerusalem that is expanded to the west is a fiction of a strong Jewish city. The size of the population, Jewish and Palestinian, that will live in Jerusalem and its environs in 2020, is not going to change if the route of municipal boundary of what is called Jerusalem snakes to the east or the west. In practice it will be a convergence of three cities: to the west will be a rich and Jewish suburban city, in the center will be a neglected and impoverished Haredi city, and to the east will be an even more neglected and impoverished Arab city.

"The discriminatory planning is made manifest in the absence of any adequate response to the changing needs of the Arab population. In terms of housing, for example, the plan allows for additional housing units for this population only by making the existing neighborhoods denser and thicker, without allocating land for new neighborhoods, and without allowing for high-rises to be built. The restriction on construction and the supposed preservation of the rural nature of the Arab neighborhoods evinces the inequality: while construction in most of the Arab neighborhoods has been restricted to four stories, in adjacent Jewish neighborhoods. the plan allows for the construction of up to six stories and more.

"The essence of Jerusalem as a city cannot be defined by the size of its majority group but, rather, mainly by means of the city's ability to accept all of the population groups that live in it, to provide them with living space and equal opportunity, and to allow for their development. The Jerusalem Municipality would do well were it to invest its greatest efforts in genuine efforts to strengthen the population that lives in it today and to model a high-quality city that will attract a strong population. Just and egalitarian planning is an essential tool to achieving that goal." (Ma'ariv, 11/12/06)

SETTLER GIVES BIRTH AT A CHECKPOINT: Sigalit Ben-Natan, 33 from the settlement of Einav, felt labor pains on Saturday morning. "As soon as the Sabbath was over we started to travel, but we realized very quickly that we might not make it to the hospital," said her husband, Jacques. "We were stopped in a traffic jam at the roadblock when my wife said that she was beginning to give birth, and I shouted for the commander of the roadblock." Capt. Adi Schuldberg, recalls, "I called a civilian and military ambulance and meanwhile calmed her down while the soldiers watched the three children. The ten minutes that went by until the military ambulance came seemed like forever to me. I was afraid that I would have to deliver the baby by myself." The battalion's paramedic delivered the baby with help from a civilian crew that had also arrived. "The baby is doing fine and Sigalit feels well too," said the new father (Ma'ariv 11/12/06)