Fatah Holds Lead Going Into Elections: Today's survey of the Palestinian public from the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO) found that in balloting for proportional representation in the Palestinian Legislative Council, the list of the Palestinian National Liberation Movement (Fatah) is preferred by 39.6% of Palestinians, the list of Change and Reform (Hamas) 28.8%, the National Initiative List (Independent Palestine) 7.7%, the Alternative List (DFLP, People's Party, Fida) 7.2%, the List of Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa (PFLP) 4.9%, and the Third Way (Salam Fayyad and Hanan Ashrawi) 4.7%, with the rest of the responses divided among other parties or none of the above. A January 18th survey from PCPO also found that 79.3% of Palestinians are strongly or somewhat in favor of resuming the peace process with Israel, 66.9% of Palestinians think that Palestinians and Israelis have the right to live together in peace and security in that part of the world, and 65.3% favor continuing the calm with Israel, provided that both sides abide by it. A January 21st poll from the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research gave the Fatah list 42% of the vote, Hamas 35%, Independent Palestine 5%, PFLP 3%, the Third Way 3%, the Alternative List 2%, and undecided 7%. Finally, the Jerusalem Media and Communications Center found that Fatah had just 32.3% of the vote, Hamas had 30.2%, the Independent Palestine list 12.6%, and the PFLP 7.6%. (IMRA, 1/18, 21, & 23/06 & AP, 1/20/06)

Fuzzy Fanatics? Hamas' election platform attempts to get around the fact that the organization's charter calls for the destruction of Israel and the establishment of a Palestinian theocracy from the Mediterranean to the Jordan River. The document states that the group "believes that its participation in the parliamentary elections is part of the overall plan for the liberation of Palestine, return of the Palestinian people to its land and homeland, and founding its independent state with Jerusalem as its capital. This participation bolsters the Intifada plan and resistance that the Palestinian people took upon itself as a strategic option to end the occupation." Recent public statements from Hamas leaders reflect this change in approach-none of them excluded negotiations with Israel. According to Dr. Mati Steinberg, a former adviser to the Shin Bet chief on Palestinian affairs, "The platform conveys opacity and duality in order to bridge the gap between Hamas' original stances and the Palestinian public's desire for an agreement between two countries." (Ha'aretz, 1/18/06)

Measuring The Coffin: A few weeks ago, Ma'ariv ran an important story outlining the plan that sources close to Prime Minister Ariel Sharon have for determining Israel's permanent borders in coordination with the U.S. The plan is premised on the assumption that a new wave of terror attacks will break out soon and that Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas will prove that he cannot govern the territories, thereby giving Israel reasons to declare the death of the Road Map and its commitment to a negotiated solution. Last week, Ma'ariv ran another major story that sets the stage for that plan by laying out the case for Abbas' political demise. According to the story, "Intelligence accumulated in Israel over recent weeks indicates that Abu Mazen is indeed losing control over the situation, has lost trust in his people, is sinking deep into depression and very close to complete governmental collapse. In this situation, Israeli political and security officials are calling to prepare for a situation in which there is no partner on the other side and Israel should take measures that are coordinated with the world in general and the United States in particular. Such a measure was described in detail in Ma'ariv several weeks ago.Along with the increasing anarchy in the PA, the reports that Jerusalem is receiving about Abu Mazen's condition are especially worrying also on the personal level. American and European sources who have had meetings with him report that he is in low spirits, that meetings do not take place on time, are postponed or do not take place at all, that he is irritable, cancels meetings and refuses to speak with people who have been called to see him.

"According to classified reports, Abu Mazen says in closed forums that he is not capable of controlling events on the ground, and is upset that he is incapable of fulfilling his promises or carrying out his plans. The assessment in Israel, and also in the world, is that the Palestinian Authority has collapsed completely and has ceased to exist as a governmental body." Ma'ariv reports that high-ranking Fatah officials and other Palestinian leaders are critical of the Palestinian leader behind his back, that Mohammed Dahlan has, at best, chilly relations with Abbas, that the Saudis have lost faith in him, and that the Egyptians are ready to throw in the towel in Gaza because of Abbas' inaction.

In public, Abbas has said that he is not planning to run for another term after three years, and that he will quit if he can't implement his program of consolidating democracy, building institutions, and carrying out reforms. However, in direct response to last week's Ma'ariv article, Abbas said, "I am not depressed; I'm exhausted. There is a difference between exhaustion and depression." He explained that the exhaustion was due to the intensive preparations for the elections this week. He denied reports that he has been canceling meetings and does not want to receive anyone at his office. "I have meetings with many senior people and my door is open to everyone," he said. He stressed, however, that if Hamas wins the elections it will make things very difficult for him. (Ma'ariv, 1/18-19/06 & Jerusalem Post, 1/17/06)

Israel's Prince Hal: Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert laid down the law last week to the agencies in charge of enforcing it in the occupied territories and put settlers on notice that a new sheriff is in town. He instructed all security agencies to take immediate action to evict settlers from the market in Hebron and ordered the preparation of a plan to evacuate all the settlement outposts that have been established since March 2001 (as required under the Road Map; Peace Now puts the number of outposts built since March 2001 at over 50, more than twice that which the government has admitted). The plan is to begin the evacuation in the next two weeks with the Amona outpost and the Hebron market, then to evacuate three outposts near the settlement of Yitzhar from which it is believed those settlers who have been cutting down Palestinian olive trees have oozed forth. Olmert said, "In Judea and Samaria, disturbances of the peace are being committed and the legally constituted authorities are being challenged. These manifestations are becoming part of the population's way of life to no small degree. Up until now the law enforcement agencies in the various sectors have not acted with the required rigor. These phenomena must be prevented, law and order must be restored, and the law enforcement agencies must be obeyed.

During the discussion, Olmert reprimanded the security establishment and the police. When they asked for more means to deal with the violence of the settlers, he retorted, "I'm not prepared [to tolerate a situation in which] every time you are faced with a challenge you ask for more resources. The disengagement was a major, concerted effort, but now we are talking about ongoing tasks. So instead of asking for more resources, get to work, because a culture of defiance of the law has been developing right under your noses, and I'm not willing to accept that under any circumstances." He also harshly slammed the authorities by noting, "Involved in breaking the law are civil servants, local authority employees, security coordinators, and holders of public offices." Israeli security forces are tentatively planning to begin evacuating Amona and the Hebron wholesale market between January 29-31. Also last week, in response to Peace Now legal action calling for the demolition of illegal houses in Amona, the High Court of Justice gave settlers there until Wednesday to file a petition of their own or move out voluntarily. Barring a further extension, the outpost may evacuated a day or two later. The Court has dismissed Peace Now's original petition because the government intends to demolish the structures shortly. Both the state and Peace Now agree that the Amona buildings are illegal. Giving the settlers a chance to file a petition is seen as a delaying tactic. (Ma'ariv, Jerusalem Post, & Peace Now statement, 1/19/06 & Ha'aretz, 1/19-20/06)

Victims Of The Pogrom: Nidal Awaiwi lives with his wife and eight children in the market area of Hebron, where recent settler rioting occurred. He said, "At first they burned stores in the old vegetable market, afterwards they came to us and the shops under the house, and started to destroy everything they came across." During one incident, "we were sitting at home knowing that settlers were rioting outside. They didn't stop throwing objects at the Palestinians, at the stores and businesses, and at passersby. Suddenly we heard the sound of stones coming closer to us, and then stones fell into the home. I looked outside and saw a large group of settlers who entered my home, into the children's room. They took the television that was there, went up to the roof, and threw it down. They threw everything that came to hand: rocks, bottles, and even large rocks. I don't know where they got them from.all the while they hurled abuse that I am ashamed to repeat." The incident took place while his eight children were at home, huddled in fear and shouting in hysteria, he said. The IDF said it's looking into the incident. (Ynet, 1/17/06)

Legally Challenged: Regarding the Hebron settlers' self-professed devotion to the law, B. Michael wrote, "The goings-on in Hebron in recent days are certainly no surprise. Therefore, there is no great need to discuss the predictable and familiar outbursts of violence, lawlessness, self-righteousness, wickedness, and obscene use of children. But a certain feature has crept into the current performance that should merit at least a bit of our attention: The galling nerve of these vandals to see themselves as the inheritors of 'Jewish property' or 'Jewish land' in Hebron-and, essentially, everywhere. In theory, we are speaking about a strictly legal issue. The squatters in the Hebron marketplace say the market is built on 'Jewish land,' and therefore they say they have a right to be there. The State of Israel agrees that the issue in question is 'Jewish property,' but refuses to validate the settlers' invasion. There is something so disturbing as to cause offense to the intelligence in the settlers', and the country's, sudden concern for the law.

"Since when do Hebron settlers care who the registered owners of the land are? Whenever they feel like making life hell for one of the neighbors, kicking them out of their homes or taking over 'Arab property,' no legal argument in the world can dissuade them from their unholy goal. For example, the Sharvati family from Hebron has lived on their property for 200 years. But this fact was not enough to dissuade Jewish rioters who decided to squat in the neighborhood. The State of Israel, too, is pretty selective when it comes to using the law before raising a hand to other people's property. When the property in question is Arab property-neither title deeds nor land registration documents nor any other official documentation leaves a great impression. Take tens of thousands of property owners in Jerusalem, Haifa, Jaffa, Acco, Beer Sheva, the West Bank, the Galilee, the Negev, Golan Heights, the coastal region, and every other region of the country. They can wipe their bottoms with their proof of ownership documents, simply for the unhappy fact that they are Arab. Because 'Arab property,' we learned a long time ago, is no more than a temporary deposit, until such time as the Jewish owners return to reclaim the property.

"Even if we innocently assume that we are speaking about a legal question, in whose name, or the name of what perverse legal logic, do these Jewish Cossacks have the right to stake claims to this property? The real estate in question was purchased in 1807 by Rabbi Chaim Yeshua Baggio from the Kashkol family. He purchased the land with his private money. The property has never been sold. In Tel Aviv, there is a man named Mr. Chaim Baggio, a descendent of Rabbi Chaim Baggio-the last rabbi of the Jewish community in Heron and a direct descendant of Rabbi Chaim Yeshua Baggio. That is to say, if anyone has a clear right of inheritance to this property-he does. Not because he is Jewish, not because the real estate in question is 'Jewish property,' but only because [of] the laws of inheritance and acquisition. Does legal reasoning not require us to ask the true inheritors of the property what they think of the whippersnappers that have suddenly appeared on their property? But these sorts of legalistic niceties don't bother the settlers. According to them, most of the Middle East-from Ur Kasdim to Pitom and Ra'amses (See Exodus chapter one)-is 'Jewish land,' and they are the rightful heirs.

"And so there would seem to be no reason to bother the Justice Department with the pointless argument about these whippersnappers. Better to let them know that they are not the only Jews in the world. And the rest of us, who haven't yet lost our sanity or our values, also have a stake in 'Jewish property.' And in the name of that stake, the rest of us heirs demand that they get the hell out of the Hebron area immediately. Not because they are Jews, and not because they are not Jews, but rather because they are a stain and an embarrassment on our entire family, wild vandals who lack both control and culture. Their rightful place is behind bars, or in re-education centers that will re-train them to enter human society." (Ynet, 1/17/06)

5,000 New Settlement Houses Planned: According to the work plan for the Israeli government, about 5,000 settlement housing units are slated to be put on the market this year. If the plan is implemented, 2006 will be a boom year for construction in the occupied territories. In 2005, close to 2,000 housing units were sold, while 2,176 units were sold in 2004, 908 in 2003, 647 in 2002, and 917 in 2001. Most of the new housing units will be put up for sale in Beitar Illit (2,000), Efrat (750), Maale Adumim (500), Tzufim (450), and Ariel (350). All construction in the occupied territories must be approved by the defense minister, who has the Civil Administration under his purview, prior to execution. Under the Road Map, Israel is obligated to freeze all settlement activity (including natural growth). (Yedioth Ahronoth, 1/17/06)

Labor Works Its Way Up: This week's round of Israeli opinion polls reflected a slight rise in support for Labor, the death of Shinui, and a lot of indecision. According to the Dahaf/Yedioth Ahronoth poll, if elections were held today for the 120-seat Knesset (with the change from last week's results in parentheses), Kadima would win 43 seats (+1), Labor 21 (+4), Likud 12 (-1), Shas 9 (-1), the Arab parties 8, United Torah Judaism (UTJ) 6, Yisrael Beiteinu 6, National Union 5, Meretz-Yahad 5, National Religious Party (NRP) 3 (-1), Green Leaf 2 (+2), and Shinui 0 (-4). Further, this poll found that while 64.1% of Israelis have not changed their security-political position in recent years, 24.4% have shifted from right to center, 4.4.% have moved from left to center, 3% have gone from center to left, and 2% have gone from right to left. 24% said that the Labor Party's Knesset list strengthens their inclination to vote for it, while 17% said it weakens it. On the other hand, just 9% said that the Likud list strengthens their inclination to vote for it, while 25% said that the list weakens their inclination. In terms of issues driving voters, 23% said the leadership team of a given party, 22% said political-security positions, 11% said socio-economic issues, and 10% said the leading candidates.

Friday's TNS Teleseker/Ma'ariv survey found Kadima would win 43 seats, Labor 20 (+3), Likud 14 (-2), Shinui 0 (-4), Shas 11 (+2), National Union 6 (+1), Yisrael Beiteinu 5, Meretz-Yahad 5, NRP 3 (-1), UTJ 6 (+1), and the Arab parties 7. 34% said that Amir Peretz's statements that he will raise the minimum wage strengthen the possibility that they will vote for Labor, while 52% said they made no difference and 12% said they reduced the chances. 35% said Labor has the cleanest top echelon in terms of integrity and lack of corruption, followed by Kadima (28%) and Likud (19%). A narrow majority (51% v 49%) said they would support a unilateral disengagement initiative in the West Bank that includes evacuating settlements if no peace agreement is reached with the Palestinians within a set time. The Geocartographic Institute survey had Kadima at 40 (-1), Labor at 21, and Likud at 14. The Shvakim Panorama/Israel Radio survey had Kadima at 37, Labor 18, Likud 15, Shinui 0, Shas 10, the Arab parties 8, Meretz-Yahad 5, National Union 4, Yisrael Beiteinu 7, UTJ 6, NRP 4, and undecided 6. The Smith/Globes survey put Kadima at 41-42, Labor 18, Likud 15, and Shinui 0. This survey also suggested that the actual results on election day could be very different because more than half of Israelis have not yet decided for whom to vote. Finally, a Dialog/Ha'aretz/Channel 10 poll had Kadima at 41 (-3) Labor 19 (+3), Likud 17 (+4), Shinui 0, Shas 10, National Union 7, UTJ 5 (-1), Meretz-Yahad 5, the Arab parties 9 (+1), and NRP 3. (Globes, IMRA, Jerusalem Post, Ha'aretz, 1/19/06; Ma'ariv, 1/20/06; & Yedioth Ahronoth, 1/20/06)

Capital Considerations: According to a new paper from the Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies (JIIS), Israel and the Palestinians must permit the international community to take part in the administration of Jerusalem's holy and historical sites. "The strong connection of members of all monotheistic religions to the city on the one hand, and the lack of trust between Israel and the Palestinian Authority on the other justifies some international intervention in overseeing the area, especially from the security standpoint and with regard to preserving the holy sites," the paper states. JIIS looked at several alternatives that stand some chance of being accepted by both sides and the international community. No single solution was advocated, but a series of alternatives were offered for public debate. The researchers wrote, "There are two central approaches to the question of a solution in Jerusalem. The first approach recommends a territorial division of the city, including the Old City Basin, while the second seeks for a solution for the city, or the historical basin alone, which may involve a third side. We prefer the second approach, because we believe this is a compromise both sides will find easier to agree with."

Five alternatives were considered: 1) Full Israeli sovereignty and control over the historic basin, with the possibility of granting the Arab population autonomy on some subjects and granting a special status to places holy for Muslims and Christians. Palestinians and the international community are not likely to agree to this; 2) The same solution as the first proposal, but with the Palestinians in charge, something Israel would never go for; 3) Territorial division of the basin between the two sides, with international supervision to help monitor and settle disputes; 4) Joint management, distribution of powers in the basin between the two sides, with international backing. If the two sides failed to co-manage the area, an international body would be entrusted with the authority and with settling disputes; and 5) Entrusting an international body with authority over the historic basin and the ability to delegate powers to both sides in certain aspects. The researchers think the last alternative is preferable and most realistic. In related news, a poll carried out for JIIS found that 63% of Israeli Jews are willing to make concessions in Jerusalem as part of a genuine peace agreement, with 54.4% willing to part with just the Arab neighborhoods of East Jerusalem. Few were willing to give up those neighborhoods plus different combinations of the Mount of Olives, the Western Wall, and the Jewish Quarter of the Old City. (Ynet, 1/17/06 & Ha'aretz, 1/19/06)