Shock & Awe: The Israeli polls taken after Prime Minister Ariel Sharon announced the formation of his new political party, Kadima, indicate strong support for his new faction, while Labor under Amir Peretz is holding fairly steady, and Likud and Shinui are tanking. Friday's Dahaf/Yedioth Ahronoth polls, taken last Tuesday and Wednesday, found that, if elections were held today for the 120-seat Knesset, Kadima would get 34 seats, Labor 26, Likud 13, Shas 10, Arab parties 9, Shinui 6, Yisrael Beiteinu 5, National Union 5, United Torah Judaism (UTJ) 5, Meretz-Yahad 5, and the National Religious Party (NRP) 3. When asked which of the top three candidates for prime minister is most credible, 36% said Sharon, 24% Peretz, and 19% Benjamin Netanyahu. 52% of respondents said that Sharon will best look after security, compared with 20% for Bibi and 9% for Peretz. However, 33% said Peretz will best look after the economy, followed by 30% for Netanyahu and 17% for Sharon. 51% thought Sharon has the best chance of bringing peace, while 12% said Peretz and 10% picked Netanyahu.

Among Likud voters, 48% said they would vote for Kadima, 35% for Likud, and 11% for Labor. 60% of Labor voters said they would pick their own party. 33% would vote for Kadima, while none would vote for Likud. Among Shinui voters, 41% will go with Kadima, 17% with Labor, and 4% with Likud. 37% of women prefer Kadima, 18% Labor, and 9% Likud. 33% of men will vote Kadima, with 24% going for Labor and 12% Likud. 49% of immigrants will vote for Kadima, 7% for Likud, and 5% for Labor. Among veterans, 33% like Kadima, 24% Labor, and 11% Likud. 30% of low income Israelis will vote for Kadima, while 19% will vote Labor and 10% Likud. 39% of middle class Israelis will support Kadima, with 16% voting Labor and 11% Likud. And among high income Israelis, 33% prefer Kadima, 21% Labor, and 13% Likud.

Friday's Teleseker/Ma'ariv survey found that (compared with results from a Teleseker/Ma'ariv poll released on November 22nd in parentheses) Kadima would take 30 (30) seats, Labor 28 (26), Likud 13 (15), Arab parties 8, Shas 8, Shinui 7, Meretz-Yahad 5, UTJ 5, National Union 5, NRP 4, and Yisrael Beiteinu 3. A Smith/Jerusalem Post survey released on Friday found that Kadima would take 32 seats, Labor 25-26, Likud 12-13, Shas 9, National Union-NRP 9, Yisrael Beiteinu 6-7, Arab parties 8-9, UTJ 5, and Shinui 5, with 14% undecided. The Smith poll, as it appeared in Globes, additionally found that 45% of Likud voters in the 2003 elections would now vote for Kadima, which is also attracting 30% of former Labor and Shinui voters. Also, 30% of immigrants from the former Soviet Union support Sharon, while their support for Likud has plummeted to single digits, about the same as their support for Labor. A Gal Hadash poll broadcast on Channel 10 on Thursday night predicted 34 seats for Kadima, 28 for Labor, and 15 for Likud.

Finally, Friday's Dahaf/Yedioth Ahronoth survey of Likud members found that Netanyahu would win 39% of the primary vote, Shaul Mofaz 19%, Silvan Shalom 12%, Uzi Landau 9%, Moshe Feiglin 9%, and Yisrael Katz 1%, with 11% undecided. In a second round between Bibi and Mofaz, Netanyahu would win, 52% to 36%, with 12% undecided. (Yedioth Ahronoth, 11/25/05; Ma'ariv, 11/22 & 25/05; Jerusalem Post, 11/25/05; & Globes, 11/24/05)

Meet The New Boss, Same As The Old Boss: Analyzing the results of the November 22nd Ma'ariv survey (which was not much different from Friday's Ma'ariv poll that gave two more seats to Labor and took two from Likud), Uri Rosen wrote, "However you look at it, the conclusion is clear. Unless something surprising happens, Ariel Sharon will also be the next prime minister of the State of Israel. It is true that everything could change by election time, but Sharon has placed himself in a perfect strategic position, with a wealth of possibilities for forming a coalition. The most unequivocal conclusion of the poll is who will not be the next prime minister-Benjamin Netanyahu. Even the most unlikely coalition that Bibi could conceivably assemble, with Tommy Lapid, the ultra-Orthodox, and the right-wing parties, would not give him more than 50 seats. By contrast, the possibilities open to Sharon are almost unlimited. With a party holding 30 seats, he can form an alliance with the Labor Party, Shinui, the NRP, Shas, UTJ, and even Meretz-Yahad. Sharon's first option is a secular coalition with Labor and Shinui (if Peretz and Lapid agree to sit together). Such a coalition would hold 65 seats. If Sharon added Meretz (as his aides have been hinting), he would have 71 seats. Another possibility for Sharon would be to forego Shinui and form a coalition with Labor and Shas. This, too, would give him 65 seats.

"A third, interesting possibility would emerge if the Likud were so badly defeated that Netanyahu resigned or was ousted. In such a case the Likud might turn once again to the center of the political map and join the coalition with Sharon and Labor, which would command 71 seats. And what about Peretz? Theoretically he, too, could form a coalition, if Sharon were willing to be number 2 (and sit together with Meretz-Yahad). In such a case, Peretz would head a coalition of 62. However, the chances of this happening are very slim. Clearly Sharon has no reason to serve under Peretz, when almost any coalition Peretz could form would be open to him-Sharon-also. So what can prevent Sharon from being the next prime minister? It appears that only two things can bring this about. One is a new corruption scandal which is so bad that it would succeed in shocking even the Israeli public which is already apathetic towards corruption. The other is a massive wave of terrorism which would turn the success of disengagement into a resounding failure with Sharon's name on it. This happened in 1996, when the suicide bombings on the buses brought down Peres. It happened again in 2000, when the al-Aqsa Intifada sent Ehud Barak packing. Could it happen again?" (Ma'ariv, 11/22/05)

Bad To The Bone: Elections are coming, but Israeli voters are not necessarily thrilled with the personal qualities of the candidates from whom they get to choose. According to data presented last week at the Sderot Conference for Society, Knesset Member Omri Sharon is seen by 65% of the Israeli public as the most corrupt political figure. He's followed by Benjamin Netanyahu (54%), Prime Minister Ariel Sharon (41%), and former Prime Minister Ehud Barak (41%). Minister Tzachi Hanegbi is seen as the most corrupt minister, followed by Agriculture Minister Yisrael Katz, Education Minister Limor Livnat, Finance Minister Ehud Olmert, and Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. The least corrupt ministers are seen as Housing Minister Yitzak Herzog and Justice Minister Tzipi Livni. Among Knesset Members, Tommy Lapid, Avigdor Lieberman, Avraham Poraz, and Amir Peretz are viewed as least corrupt. 59% of the public thinks that the overall level of corruption of the Israeli government is very high. But only 9% think that corruption will be a key issue in the election, with 49% picking the economy and society and 30% naming peace and security instead. (Ynet, 11/23/05)

The Oys Of Summer: With Israeli general elections slated for March, Israelis are bracing themselves for four months of the kind of polite, uplifting, intellectually stimulating political debate usually associated with Knesset races. And they may get to relive the experience again next July. The agreement on early elections between Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and Labor party chairman Amir Peretz did not include passing the 2006 budget. A legal conundrum costing hundreds of millions of shekels is liable to be the result. Knesset Speaker Reuven Rivlin said that, without an approved budget, the newly elected Knesset may have to dissolve itself shortly after convening, followed by additional expensive elections in July. An initial Knesset inquiry shows that the political parties are unaware of this possible constitutional trap caused by uncoordinated legislation. "This is another wonderful Israeli mess created by conflicting basic laws," Rivlin said. "A situation could arise in which we'll have a new Knesset and government next March, but they won't manage to pass the budget by March 31st, the deadline for approving the budget, if it is not passed by December 31st."

Under the Basic Law: The Government (1992), the Knesset is dissolved in this case, and special elections for the next Knesset are held after 90 days. The new Knesset convenes three weeks after election day, and a further considerable period is needed to form a government. Can another round of elections be avoided? Current opinion is divided. Rivlin says that, in theory, a Knesset majority of 61 can amend the Basic Law: The Government (1992) with a temporary law postponing the deadline for submitting the budget, according to what is agreed. He adds, however, that this is an unhealthy situation, which is liable to leave a loophole for delaying approval of the 2006 budget to as late as March 31, 2007, as the law can best be understood. Rivlin made his comments to Globes at a time when Sharon was asking for elections in February. With the contest finally scheduled for March 28, 2006, official election results will now not be released until April 5th and the new Knesset will not convene until April 17th, although this date could be postponed because it falls during the intermediate days of Passover. (Globes, 11/20/05 & Ha'aretz, 11/24/05)

Sharon Aide Rejects Land For Peace: Ariel Sharon no longer regards big compromises over land as being crucial to setting up an independent state, according to Eyal Arad, one of his closest political advisers. Arad said the Israeli leadership had repudiated the central belief of years of negotiations to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, that giving up land would buy peace. He said that Sharon considers the Oslo Accords to be failed and discredited. Arad said the Israeli leadership interpreted the Road Map for peace as laying out an alternative philosophy of "security for independence," meaning a "total end of the terrorist war" in return for a "Palestinian national home," but not necessarily based on the 1967 borders. Arad's views aside, the Road Map really requires the Palestinians to "undertake visible efforts" to stop attacks and start to dismantle "terrorist capabilities and infrastructure." It also says that a negotiated settlement is to be based on "the principle of land for peace."

[The Road Map also obligates Israel to freeze all settlement activity, including natural growth, and to remove outposts built since March 2001, so there may actually be enough land for the Palestinians to build a viable state upon. Further, it leaves final decisions about borders and settlements to final status negotiations, not unilateral Israeli declarations from political hired guns.] Palestinian officials described Arad's views as an attempt to assert that Israel's efforts to impose de facto borders, using the West Bank barrier and settlement expansion, were not jeopardizing peace. They were also in line with Sharon's contention that the core of the conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians was not the occupation, but Islamic terror. Palestinian Chief Negotiator, Saeb Erekat, said, "They have been trying to say borders are not the issue while they use the [West Bank barrier] to build a border." (Guardian, 11/23/05)

Labor Leaders Abet Settlement Expansion: Housing Minister Yitzak Herzog let his ministry publish tenders for construction of 350 more housing units in the West Bank settlement of Maale Adumim. Herzog declared that the settlement is part of one of the settlement blocs about which there is an Israeli consensus that they should be kept in any final status agreement, and therefore he supports construction within the settlement's expansive borders. He added that the move was coordinated with new Labor Chairman Amir Peretz. In contrast, Herzog said, he opposes construction in the E-1 corridor between Maale Adumim and Jerusalem, due to the diplomatic dispute over the area's future. However, Knesset Member Ran Cohen of Meretz-Yahad correctly pointed out that the new tenders violate Israel's commitments under the Road Map, which calls for a freeze on all settlement activity. The new tenders for Maale Adumim bring this year's total for new settlement tenders to 665 units. Earlier in the week, Peretz told the Labor central committee that he does not support the Geneva Initiative and that he favors maintaining a united Jerusalem in a permanent agreement with the Palestinians. (Ha'aretz, 11/23/05 & Jerusalem Post, 11/20/05)

Sasson's Settlement Suggestions Sunk: The Israeli Justice Ministry and security officials rejected several fundamental recommendations of the Sasson report on illegal settlement outposts, which are meant to prevent more outposts from being established and deter those who establish them. The ministry spokesperson confirmed that the ministry, along with the legal adviser for the West Bank, decided that four out of eight proposed amendments to security legislation "are not necessary due to various legal reasons." Talia Sasson, the attorney who compiled the report at Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's request, was surprised by the decision. The rest of the report's proposals, meanwhile, have yet to be implemented. The Road Map calls for a halt to settlement construction and the removal of all outposts established since March 2001. The government adopted the Sasson report on March 10th, and made the security establishment and the Justice Ministry responsible for "examining and formulating as soon as possible the amendments necessary in security legislation" and "present the new legislation to the special ministerial committee for implementing the report." A 90 day deadline for recommendations came and went, and another deadline was set and similarly missed. Meanwhile, construction in illegal outposts has continued, and in some outposts, caravans have made way for permanent housing.

The following recommendations have now been formally rejected: setting a specific sentence for violating the law on unauthorized structures (including significant jail time and heavy fines); denying authorization for a caravan unless the application also presents a building permit issued for the specific caravan in the target location, an aerial photo of the intended caravan site, a detailed plan for establishing the caravan, and a statement explaining the need for the caravan; requiring any construction that takes place outside the jurisdiction of a regional or local authority to be approved by the defense minister; and requiring any West Bank land purchases by Israelis to be approved by the head of the Civil Administration, in writing.

Sasson responded, saying that, "Within the outposts, I pointed out that the caravans constitute a central means of illegal construction in the territories, including setting up outposts within hours." Regarding the proposal for political approval of construction, she noted, "I wrote in the report that political approval of construction plans in the territories is essential in that it has political significance." Yitzhak Herzog, one of Labor's representatives to the ministerial committee for implementing the Sasson report, said he was surprised that the jurists were ignoring the need to close the holes in law enforcement procedures relating to illegal outposts, which he described as the heart of the Sasson report. He added that rejecting the recommendations would abet law-breakers. The Justice Ministry points out that the report said existing legislation appears sufficient to evacuate the outposts. (Ha'aretz, 11/23 & 24/05)

Politics First, West Bank Law Enforcement Never: The State of Israel announced for the first time-in an official document-that political considerations such as the upcoming general elections are preventing the evacuation of illegal outposts, including those built on private Palestinian land. The comments are included in the state prosecution's response to a High Court of Justice petition filed by Peace Now regarding the illegal West Bank outposts Harsha and Yuval. The document says that in addition to its central legal argument (i.e., that the High Court does not tend to get involved in political issues and law enforcement), other factors include, "the political circumstances prevailing at this time, mainly the fact that a real possibility exists that general elections will be held within about four months. The question of the feasibility of implementing the demolition orders and determining the priorities for implementing the demolition orders are subject, among other things, to political considerations." Shocking.

Dror Etkes, head of Peace Now's Settlements Watch project, said that instead of evacuating hundreds of illegal structures, the state is sending its prosecutors to defend its ongoing failures regarding everything related to its basic obligation to enforce the law equally. Peace Now's attorney, Michael Sfard, charged that "the government intends to avoid enforcing the law." He said the state did not deny the facts or the legal issues in the cases of the two outposts. Sfard said the state did not want the court to intervene because it intended to retroactively legalize the houses, even though the Civil Administration had issued demolition orders against all of them. (Ha'aretz & Jerusalem Post, 11/24/05)

Show Me The Way To Go Home: A quarter of West Bank settlers living east of the security fence are willing to leave their homes immediately if they are compensated, according to a poll conducted by Teleseker for the One Home movement. The survey found that 74% of the general public supports a new "evacuation-compensation" bill that would enable settlers to leave their settlements and move within the Green Line border in return for alternative housing, and 35% of the settlers living east of the fence support this bill. The poll also found that 70% of the general public believes that additional West Bank settlements will be evacuated. One Home helps settlers living east of the separation fence who are interested in moving into Israel and who are unable to do so for financial reasons. (Ha'aretz, 11/20/05)

Food For Naught: Palestinian farmers who received hothouses from Jewish settlers evacuated from Gaza over the summer are having trouble growing what was once the most popular produce of Gush Katif: insect-free lettuce, parsley, and dill. The Israeli Agriculture Ministry estimates that the Palestinians have so far harvested 1,300 dunams of hothouses. Religious Jewish communities in Europe turned to the new Palestinian owners of Gush Katif farm fields with the request to keep growing special kosher produce they happily buy in supermarkets across Europe. The initiative failed because the first produce was infected with worms, effectively canceling their kosher status. "Growing greens without insects and worms was a unique technique developed in Gush Katif," says Yossi Tsarfati, chair of the Gush Katif Farmers Committee. "The knowledge is also lacking among the Palestinian workers who worked for us, yet did not take part in the special spraying and laboratory tests." In related news, Israeli border officials proved they're not cream puffs when it comes to marshmallows: they stopped a truckload of fraudulently kosher marshmallow snacks from entering Israel from Gaza. The Chief Rabbinate said the boxes of "krembos" were sent back because they had forged kosher seals. A spokesperson for the Chief Rabbinate said Israel does not import any of its krembos. The round chocolate shells filled with flavored marshmallow cream on a biscuit are one of the country's most popular winter snack foods. (Ynet, 11/22/05 &Reuters, 11/20/05)