HAMAS TO ABBAS: In an analysis of yesterday's tunnel bombing attack against IDF troops by Hamas and the Fatah Hawks faction, Amit Cohen wrote, "While light gusts of optimism began to blow, the tunnel digging far beneath Rafah was being completed. Although the construction began months before Arafat's death, it ended with the powerful sound of an explosion, a clear signal to his successor. If for a moment it seemed that Abu Mazen (Mahmoud Abbas) was succeeding in taking control of the Palestinian imbroglio, at least until the coming elections, the terror attack last night reminded us how fragile that illusion was. Yesterday Palestinian sources said that it was impossible to deal with Hamas by force. Israel tried and failed, they said. That is the approach of Abu Mazen, who announced that he does not plan to clash with Hamas, but to come to an understanding with it. Hamas, for its part, continues to send double messages: on the one hand Hamas holds talks with the PA, which is trying to reach a cease-fire, and on the other hand, it continues its military activity. Publicly, the Palestinian leadership in the making will find it hard to condemn the operation. As long as the IDF continues to operate in Gaza, the Palestinians view the area as a legitimate killing field. But behind closed doors, there is a great deal of anger about the double game being played by Hamas. 'Certainly Abu Mazen is angry when he hears about things like this,' said a Palestinian security source. 'But what can we do. The understandings we reached with Hamas spoke only about terror attacks inside Israeli territory.' In order to maintain its legitimacy on the street, Hamas chose, and not by chance, to carry out the operation together with the Fatah Hawks. Hamas likes to have the credit, but yesterday Hamas officials waived the exclusive glory and were quick to point out the part played by the Fatah men. Now, if someone from the PA wants to come to them with complaints, let him deal first with those who are supposed to be on their side. In practice, the only similarity between these people and Abu Mazen is their membership in Fatah. From an ideological point of view, they are much closer to Hamas. 'These people think only militarily. When they can act, they act,' said a Palestinian source. This is the second signal that Abu Mazen received from Fatah elements in Gaza. The first was several days after Arafat's death, when shots were fired at Abu Mazen and Dahlan. This time as well, the centers of power within the Gaza Strip are trying to signal that their ability to influence does not stop at the ballot box next January. These people can do to Abu Mazen what Israel did to Arafat: make him an irrelevant leader." (Ma'ariv, 12/13/04)

75% OF ISRAELIS SAY IT'S TIME TO TALK: According to the latest Peace Index survey from the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research at Tel Aviv University, about 70% of Israelis are more optimistic, after the death of Yasser Arafat, about the chances for reaching a peace agreement with the Palestinians, with 9% saying they are more pessimistic, 20% indicating that Arafat's death does not affect the chances for peace, and 1% not knowing. This appears to explain the increase in the number of those who support holding negotiations, from around two-thirds in recent months to the current level of 75%. Even in the Likud, a pronounced majority of three-fourths now supports such talks, compared with about 60% who favored them in recent months. This growing optimism can be explained in terms of the widespread assessment (86%) that Arafat personally harmed the peace process even from the standpoint of Palestinian interests, compared with 8% who said he did more good than harm. On the other hand, a majority of 62% thinks the chances are quite low or very low that the upcoming elections will produce a Palestinian leadership that has clear authority over all Palestinian organizations and is able to run the Palestinian Authority and take charge in the field. Perhaps for that reason, a majority of 53% thinks that Israel should help the new Palestinian leadership stabilize its rule with certain gestures to ease the lives of the Palestinian population, such as ending closures and removing checkpoints in the West Bank. (Ha'aretz, 12/7/04)

DECREASE IN PALESTINIAN SUPPORT FOR TERROR: The latest survey from the Jerusalem Media and Communication Center found that a majority of Palestinians (51.8%) opposes "military operations" against Israeli targets and considers them harmful to Palestinian national interests, compared with 26.9% in June. Only 41.1% of Palestinians think that terrorist attacks should continue, down from 65.4% in June. Further, 59.3% of Palestinians feel optimistic regarding the future in general, up from 45.3% in June. However, 47.3% think that the peace process is going through difficult circumstances with an uncertain future; 24.8% think the peace process is dead and negotiations can't be resumed, while 25.8% believe that the peace process is still alive and that negotiations can be restarted. In terms of their favored solution for ending the conflict, 56.7% support a two-state plan (up from 44.5% in June), while 23.7% want a bi-national state (down from 26.5% in June). The margin of error for this survey was 3%. (Jerusalem Post, 12/8/04)

SAVING PRIVATE ARIK: The GSS is stepping up security around Prime Minister Ariel Sharon in the wake of the increase in his political strength. It is feared that extremist elements may make an attempt on the life of Sharon because their struggle against disengagement by democratic means has not born fruit. A senior GSS source said the extreme right-wing had been counting on the parliamentary system [to stop the disengagement]. Now that their hopes have been dashed, there is no shortage of people who might decide to take action [of a different kind], the source said. One determined person, or a small group, would suffice, the source said. There are people like that out there. That is why we are also preparing on the operational level, he said, and there are a number of operative decisions that the GSS will adopt in the next few days. Reacting to the report, former GSS chief Yaacov Perry said, "The protective ring around the VIPs will have to be strengthened. Their daily routines will have to be changed. There is no doubt that following the political and party successes of the prime minister, the level of concern [for his safety] is rising." (Israel Army Radio News, 12/12/04)

ASSASSINATION AUTOMATION, PART I: Commenting on last week's assassination attempt against a prominent terrorist, Ofer Shelah wrote, "There has never been a real debate over the benefit of the IDF assassination operations. Only a minority-some of whom are in uniform, but have never spoken out publicly, for understandable reasons-disagreed with the way that Israel has turned into a wholesale assassin. The transition from definitions such as 'ticking bomb' to perceiving the assassinations as an instrument of policy was no more than adaptation to the prevalent mood among decision makers and citizens alike. In the past year, this discussion has disappeared almost completely. The assassination of Hamas leaders was never measured in terms of utility: The question was only whether it would be followed by a bloody response, and after the latter failed to arrive-mainly due to a huge effort by the security forces-the killing of Sheikh Yassin and Abdul Aziz Rantisi was filed under the heading of operations whose justification lies in the very fact of their success. And if this applies to Yassin and Rantisi, how much more so for those beneath them. But when the situation is examined from outside the crosshairs, one can believe the statement made by a high-ranking officer, who said (off the record, of course): 'We are acting against the purpose that we have defined for ourselves.' The assassination attempt of Jamal Abu Samhadana last Thursday, which led to a bloody weekend in the Gaza Strip, is a clear example of this. For the past year, the IDF has been trying to convey the message to the residents of the Gaza settlements that despite the disengagement plan, there is every intention of safeguarding their lives, as long as they are there. As part of this effort, the army has invested significant sums in fortification and walls. The commanders of the troops repeat the message in the ears of the residents: We will protect you with full force, without sparing expense and personnel, until the last minute-regardless of the fact that ultimately we will also have to carry out the evacuation. It is hard to envy the officers, who are trying to walk on this thin line. On one hand, one of their roles is to prevent an outbreak of violence, which could shatter the fragile optimism of the past weeks and obstruct the implementation of a plan that has already been approved by the cabinet and Knesset. On the other hand, their stated role is to protect the residents. It is difficult to translate this contradiction into terms of unequivocal military action." (Yedioth Ahronoth, 12/12/04)

ASSASSINATION AUTOMATION, PART II: Ofer Shelah continued, "Abu Samhadana is a veteran target of the security forces: A prominent representative of a crime family, which has privatized the Palestinian struggle and uses it for the purpose of establishing its rule in various areas of the Gaza Strip. This is a man who is responsible for large terror attacks against Israeli targets, including strikes against tanks. However, it is greatly doubtful whether his assassination has any meaning at the present time. The claim that an attack on him serves to entrench the control of Mohammed Dahlan and Abu Mazen in the Gaza Strip is also dubious, since Israel's record in diagnosing what is good for the relative moderates among the Palestinians is rather poor. What is certain is that the attempt to assassinate Abu Samhadana directly caused the mortar fire on Neveh Dekalim, in which four residents were injured, including a seven-year-old boy, and Kassam rocket fire towards Israel. After the fire came the response, during which a Palestinian girl was killed. These events-yes, even the wounding of innocent people on the Israeli side-is received in the parts of Israel outside Gush Katif with a certain indifference. No one tries to see if there was justification for these events, no one asks why those who are trying to contain the confrontation and prevent harm to civilians feel a need for an ostentatious assassination operation, the inevitable corollary of which is a violent reaction followed by a counter-reaction. If indeed Israel wishes for the course of the withdrawal to be coordinated with the Palestinians, if its leaders wish to protect the citizens of Gush Katif until the moment of evacuation, then such assassinations, which are usually staged only because an operational opportunity to carry them out presents itself, are of no benefit at all. They only show to what degree, despite the talks of a great change in the offing and a new spirit, the security systems continue to act out of inertia." (Yedioth Ahronoth, 12/12/04/)

MUBARAK MAINTAINS MOMENTUM: Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is trying to widen the circle of participants in the peace process with Israel and appears to be coordinating his efforts with the Palestinians. For instance, he is attempting to get Kuwaiti ruler Prince Jabber Ahmed al Sabah to open negotiations with Israel for diplomatic ties and to pressure Syria to demonstrate more daring political moves that will persuade Israel of Damascus' seriousness about renewing the political process with Israel. Kuwait is the current chair of the Gulf States Council for Cooperation, which includes Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman. Those states are due to convene this month to set policy toward the region. Mubarak is asking Kuwait to present an initiative for the Gulf states to establish diplomatic ties with Israel, in exchange for a significant acceleration of the negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians and the start of negotiations between Syria and Israel. As for Syria, Mubarak hopes to exploit Kuwait's excellent ties with Damascus, mostly based on major Kuwaiti investments in Syria, to persuade Syria to demonstrate more decisively its seriousness about making peace with Israel. Through Kuwait, Egypt hopes to persuade Syria to take still unclear "significant steps" that would persuade both Jerusalem and Washington to take Bashar Assad seriously. Further, a senior Israeli official at the Israeli Embassy in Cairo appeared on Egyptian national television last week for the first time since the outbreak of the Intifada. Israel Tickochinsky was interviewed in Arabic by Umayma Tamim, wife of Osama el-Baz, senior adviser to Mubarak. Tickochinsky had been boycotted by Egyptian media for four years. (Ha'aretz & Jerusalem Post, 12/8/04) PA PONDERS GENEVA: According to Palestinian sources cited in the London-based Arab daily al-Quds al-Arabi, the Palestinian Authority (PA) is considering whether to adopt the Geneva Accords following the January 9th elections. The reports stated that the PA might endorse the plan if PLO Chairman Mahmoud Abbas is elected. According to the report, the PA believes in the adoption of the accords as part of the Road Map plan. (Ma'ariv, 12/6/04)

TRIAL SEPARATION: Israel plans to transfer areas in the northern Gaza Strip to full security responsibility of the Palestinian Authority (PA) even before the disengagement in July 2005, with an aim of examining the PA's ability to rein in anarchy in those areas. As part of the preparations that Israel is making prior to renewed negotiations with the PA and as part of the talks for a coordinated disengagement with the Palestinians, actions and gestures are being examined that will serve as preliminary steps prior to disengagement. The transfer of areas in northern Gaza to full security responsibility to the PA would mean the PA would commit itself to prevent all terror activity in these locations, which would include Jabalya, Beit Lahiya, and Beit Hanoun. In return, Israel would permit the Palestinian security services to bear arms there and operate without Israeli intervention. Another option being explored is a full renewal of Palestinian security services in certain West Bank cities as a preliminary step that would be carried out even before the Israeli disengagement from the northern West Bank. The success of these experiments would indicate the PA's ability to fulfill a coordinated disengagement agreement, thereby enabling Israel to transfer all the territories that it evacuates directly to it. (Yedioth Ahronoth, 12/10/04)

NOT-SO-EXTREME HOME MAKEOVER: In the wake of Yasser Arafat's death and the possible election of Abu Mazen as the next Palestinian Authority (PA) Chairman, Israeli officials are re-examining the decision to dismantle the settlements in Gaza and the northern West Bank after the evacuation. It is believed that if the disengagement is carried out in coordination with the PA, then in contrast to the present plan, the settlements will be transferred to the World Bank in their entirety, so that the latter would transfer them to the PA. The possibility that the settlements would be transferred to the PA and not demolished was considered earlier, when the disengagement plan initially came up. It was decided that the settlements would not be "demolished" but "dismantled," so that an effort would be made to send to Israel as much existing equipment and structures as possible. According to this plan, only what could not be dismantled was supposed to be demolished. It was also planned to prevent damaging underground infrastructures, such as sewage and electricity, which would be transferred to the PA in their entirety. But with Arafat gone, the security establishment and political echelon are reconsidering the possibility of transferring the settlements without "dismantling" them. If Abu Mazen is elected PA Chairman and disengagement is coordinated with the Palestinians, Israeli officials believe it might be possible to promise that the settler houses would be handed over by the World Bank to the PA, and that they would not "be occupied" by Hamas. It is believed that the transfer of houses in their entirety, rather than photos of destruction, would contribute to improving trust and the atmosphere between Israel and the Palestinians. However, if such a transfer is made, it would not include all of the settlement structures. Synagogues, for instance, still would be dismantled. (Ma'ariv, 12/6/04)

HAPPY MEALS WERE NOT AVAILABLE: One of the ways planned for reducing friction between IDF soldiers and the Palestinians is to transfer responsibility for managing roadblocks to civilians. The Defense Ministry is establishing a unit that will take on the task of managing roadblocks between the occupied territories and Israel. The idea is that the workers staffing the roadblocks will not be soldiers but rather civilians who work for the ministry. The reason for having civilians manage the roadblocks is the numerous complaints regarding the inappropriate behavior of the soldiers towards Palestinians at the sites. In addition, IDF commanders complain that lengthy stays at roadblocks burn out the regular troops. According to the ministry's decision, civilian security guards who graduated from combat units, who are supposedly more mature and professional than soldiers of the regular army, will work at the roadblocks. The ministry has already recruited several former high-ranking employees of the Airports Authority, who are supposed to set up the unit. In the first stage, the unit will receive responsibility for the crossings along the separation barrier on the seam line. If the attempt succeeds, the tasks will be gradually broadened to include roadblocks within the occupied territories. (Ma'ariv, 12/8/04)

OCCUPATIONAL DISSONANCE: "In every generation, an IDF officer must view himself as if he came from Auschwitz, in two senses: not to do what was done to us-and to make sure that what was done to us not be done again," Director of Human Resources Branch Maj. Gen. Elazar Stern told the Knesset Constitution, Law and Justice Committee, which convened a hearing on human rights and the purity of arms in the course of the war on terror. Stern presented the committee members with a worrisome figure: around 20% of those drafted into the IDF believe that the life of an Arab is not equal to the life of a Jew. Stern said that it is impossible to wage war against terror wearing white gloves, and that it is impossible to speak about purity of arms without taking human life into account. "One must be strict about the value of human dignity," he noted, "but human life is a value that is not less important, and perhaps more so. When I say to take an action that may harm an innocent man, I know how many lives I can save on the home front as a result." Professor Mordechai Kremnitzer of the Hebrew University also took part in the discussion, attacking the policy of demolishing the houses of Palestinians whose family members are involved in acts of terror. "The destruction of houses is a callous violation of international law. It is impossible to defend [it] under principled examination," he said. "I am sure that in another 20 years, there will not be a single person left in Israeli society who does not say these home demolitions are barbaric and feel ashamed that people in a democratic society could allow it to happen." Kremnitzer also criticized the High Court of Justice for permitting the policy of destroying Palestinian houses. "The High Court, to our shame, lends a hand to the destruction of homes. Its decision in this matter is a grave mistake, a cause for generations to cry," he added. The Association for Civil Rights in Israel told the committee that since October 2001, Israel demolished around 628 houses for the purpose of punishment, in which about 4,000 people lived. Judge Advocate General Brig. Gen. Avi Mandelblit responded that a committee had been established that is examining the usefulness of demolishing houses as a means of punishment. Chief Education Officer Brig. Gen. Ilan Harari reported that the Central Command is holding a course for roadblock commanders and that in the future it will also be attended by reservists. Committee Chair MK Michael Eitan summarized the meeting, saying that the IDF must be strict about using the right means in each and every case. "We cannot be victorious if we justify all the means. Victory is not victory if it is achieved in the manner used by those who employ terror," he said. (Yedioth Ahronoth, 12/7/04 & Ha'aretz, 12/6/04)

MORTALITY PLAY: The IDF is investigating the death of a 15-year-old Palestinian who was killed about nine months ago by shots fired by soldiers during a march in Gaza. At the start of March, after concluding their basic training, soldiers from the Givati Brigade's Rotem battalion staged a special march near the settlement of Morag in the southern Gaza Strip. The march came with an extensive backdrop that included tanks and APCs standing on the side of the road, smoke grenades being thrown, and deterrent fire being carried out in the area in order to ward off any possible danger. At the same time, 15-year-old Khaled Madi was working in a field near Morag with his father, Suleiman. Suddenly, for a reason that is unclear, a volley of shots from a MAG machine gun hit the boy's head, and he died on the spot. Suleiman Madi related that he and his son were busy at work. "We were tending to our land. We live in a completely open area that the army has already leveled. There is nothing special there, the only thing was the shooting in our direction, from which Khaled was killed," he said. According to the father, the shooting was deliberate. "Seven bullets ripped through Khaled's upper body, from the neck up. There is no way this was accidental fire. He was clearly shot by a sniper," he concluded. The IDF denied the allegations of a deliberate attack. A military source explicitly defined the shooting as "deterrent," intended to prevent anyone from approaching soldiers in hostile territory. The operational inquiry confirmed conclusively that the teenager was killed from a volley of IDF machine gun fire. Commanders in the sectors admitted that this was a grave result, and there was no justification for killing the teenage. (Y-Net, 12/8/04)

RIGHT-WINGERS THREATEN RABBIS: Denouncing a recent escalation in violence against IDF rabbis over their rejection of rabbinic calls for soldiers to refuse evacuation orders, IDF Chief Rabbi Brig. Gen. Yisrael Weiss said he has received a series of threatening letters from anti-disengagement activists. "There is certainly an escalation in the harsh tone," he said. "Almost on a daily basis I receive letters, some of which cross red lines and are filled with hatred and personal insults." Rabbi Weiss has received a spate of letters comparing him to a Nazi collaborator, and warning him that he will be treated as one if he does not recant the halahic approval he gave for disengagement. This included a halachic ruling permitting the exhumation and reburial of bodies in the cemeteries of settlements to be abandoned. One of the most malicious letters told him that before he gives a halahic ruling allowing other people's children to be exhumed, he should exhume the body of Tehila, his 8-year-old daughter who was killed in a car accident a few years ago. In a separate incident, three right-wing extremists were arrested for allegedly stoning the home of Rabbi Menahem Fruman, known for holding pro-peace dialogues with Palestinians, in the settlement of Tekoa. A message scrawled on one of the rocks threatened, "The next rock will be to your head." A week before, graffiti reading, "Death penalty for traitors," was found written on Fruman's home. (Jerusalem Post, 12/5/04 & Ma'ariv, 12/8/04)

THE SLIPPERY SLOPE TO PEACE: A new plan for a comprehensive peace agreement between Israel and Syria is being presented at this week's annual Herzliya Conference. The plan focuses on a triple land swap among Israel, Syria, and Jordan.and skiing. It calls for Israel to hold onto the ridge line on the Golan Heights and the water line, as part of a peace agreement with Syria. This land, which Syria would concede, is located on an area of between 220-280 square kilometers, and is home to 10,000 of the 16,000 Golan settlers. The eastern and northern Golan Heights would be evacuated and returned to Syria. The Druze villages would also be included in the area that would be given back. Israel, according to the plan, would keep the water sources and receive an access strip to Mt. Hermon. The plan also would resolve the dispute with Lebanon over Shaba Farms (which would return to Syria) and add to the Israeli territory in el-Hama. In return for the Syrian concession, Syria would receive from Jordan areas of an identical size to those being conceded. These areas could be anywhere along the common border with Jordan, or even in areas that Syria conquered in the past and settled with its own citizens, and now, in a recent agreement between the two countries, are being returned to Jordan. Israel, in return, would give Jordan an equivalent sized area in the Arava or south of the Dead Sea. Another possibility is to compensate Jordan for the "value of the area," with exclusive passage rights or with port rights whose economic value is greater than the area in which the installations are located. In this way Jordan would replace marginally valuable land in northern Jordan with more valuable land and would strengthen its international standing by having helped make peace between Israel and Syria. The agreement would be backed up by dramatic economic benefits for Jordan. The Hermon area would be part of a special arrangement and would become a joint Israeli, Syrian, and Lebanese vacation site with international investments. The plan's authors have already forged contact with international bodies, including the International Ski Federation, which is willing to turn the Hermon into a ski resort, working with all sides. (Ma'ariv, 12/9/04)