Key facts about the settlement moratorium:
Having listened carefully to the comments made today by Prime Minister http://www.pmo.gov.il/PMOEng/Communication/EventsDiary/eventfreeze251109.htm (link has expired) Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. Envoy George Mitchell, it's clear that Israel committed to stop:
Having listened carefully to the comments made today by Prime Minister http://www.pmo.gov.il/PMOEng/Communication/EventsDiary/eventfreeze251109.htm (link has expired) Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. Envoy George Mitchell, it's clear that Israel committed to stop:
- New construction starts (including both government and privately-initiated projects), and related infrastructure.
- Approving future settlement construction.
- Construction of public buildings (e.g. schools), except for a small number of such buildings.
It's clear that the moratorium does not include:
The situation on the ground now:
The State Department told an Israeli reporter that: "According to data provided by the [Israeli government], there are an estimated 700 buildings currently under construction throughout the West Bank [settlements], which include about 2500 housing units."
As of the end of September, the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) estimated that 2,895 housing units were under construction in West Bank settlements. Compared to previous years this level of construction is roughly average, meaning that there is not currently a construction "bubble" that would make the moratorium meaningless. For example, at the end of 2008, the CBS figure for the number of units under construction was 3,209.
The amount of time it takes for new construction projects in settlements to be completed is generally 18-to-24 months.
There are currently 99 populated settlement outposts. Outposts are West Bank settlements built without Israeli government authorization.
Looking ahead:
1) The first big question, looking ahead, will be whether Israel implements this announcement in good faith. Will Israel look for loopholes to build in a fashion that emasculates this announcement? Will Israel refrain from provocative actions in East Jerusalem? How will Israel manage settlers that try to lash out violently or try to create new facts on the ground?
Actions speak louder than words. That is why Peace Now will closely monitor developments in the settlements, providing independent reporting of the extent to which Israel lives up to its pronouncements on settlements and outposts. The movement will also be paying attention to activities in Jerusalem and other key areas that can undermine the potential positive impact of a moratorium.
2) The second big question is what will happen after 10 months. Will the settlement moratorium be continued?
Tens of thousands of housing units - not including government-initiated projects - could be built in the settlements based on previous approvals. In recent months the Israeli government stopped nearly all new approvals and the initiation of public projects. This led to a decrease in the number of new starts. Nevertheless, significant construction in the settlements, based on previous approvals and private initiatives continues. In the first three quarters of 2008, there were 1,647 construction starts (39% of which were initiated directly by the government, i.e. "public construction"). In the first three quarters of 2009, there were 1,198 new starts (of which less than 20% was public construction).
3) The third big question is whether this step can be leveraged to bring about meaningful negotiations.
The extent to which Israel implements this moratorium in good faith can have a real impact on this outcome. For example, moving forward on construction in East Jerusalem can seriously sabotage the prospects for progress.
President Obama and his team will have to work diligently and patiently to move towards negotiations, taking into account domestic political constraints of both sides, while also prodding them to act to change the status quo.
APN is a leading voice bringing you reliable and useful information about the push for peace for Israel. Please add any questions you may have below. We'll answer them.
- Construction in East Jerusalem.
- Stopping construction of buildings already underway.
- By what mechanism Israel will define what constitutes a building where construction has started. For instance, Peace Now revealed that settlers had started laying foundations for 800 buildings in anticipation of an announcement like this. Will work on these be frozen as a part of the moratorium?
- To what extent will Israel restrain provocative building in East Jerusalem. The fallout from the recent announcement of plans to expand Gilo indicate just how seriously these projects are seen.
The situation on the ground now:
The State Department told an Israeli reporter that: "According to data provided by the [Israeli government], there are an estimated 700 buildings currently under construction throughout the West Bank [settlements], which include about 2500 housing units."
As of the end of September, the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) estimated that 2,895 housing units were under construction in West Bank settlements. Compared to previous years this level of construction is roughly average, meaning that there is not currently a construction "bubble" that would make the moratorium meaningless. For example, at the end of 2008, the CBS figure for the number of units under construction was 3,209.
The amount of time it takes for new construction projects in settlements to be completed is generally 18-to-24 months.
There are currently 99 populated settlement outposts. Outposts are West Bank settlements built without Israeli government authorization.
Looking ahead:
1) The first big question, looking ahead, will be whether Israel implements this announcement in good faith. Will Israel look for loopholes to build in a fashion that emasculates this announcement? Will Israel refrain from provocative actions in East Jerusalem? How will Israel manage settlers that try to lash out violently or try to create new facts on the ground?
Actions speak louder than words. That is why Peace Now will closely monitor developments in the settlements, providing independent reporting of the extent to which Israel lives up to its pronouncements on settlements and outposts. The movement will also be paying attention to activities in Jerusalem and other key areas that can undermine the potential positive impact of a moratorium.
2) The second big question is what will happen after 10 months. Will the settlement moratorium be continued?
Tens of thousands of housing units - not including government-initiated projects - could be built in the settlements based on previous approvals. In recent months the Israeli government stopped nearly all new approvals and the initiation of public projects. This led to a decrease in the number of new starts. Nevertheless, significant construction in the settlements, based on previous approvals and private initiatives continues. In the first three quarters of 2008, there were 1,647 construction starts (39% of which were initiated directly by the government, i.e. "public construction"). In the first three quarters of 2009, there were 1,198 new starts (of which less than 20% was public construction).
3) The third big question is whether this step can be leveraged to bring about meaningful negotiations.
The extent to which Israel implements this moratorium in good faith can have a real impact on this outcome. For example, moving forward on construction in East Jerusalem can seriously sabotage the prospects for progress.
President Obama and his team will have to work diligently and patiently to move towards negotiations, taking into account domestic political constraints of both sides, while also prodding them to act to change the status quo.
APN is a leading voice bringing you reliable and useful information about the push for peace for Israel. Please add any questions you may have below. We'll answer them.
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I am not impressed. How will "new construction" be defined? What about new outposts and expansion of existing outposts? No committment regarding Jerusalem. No defined penalty for failing to comply. I will wait for results before breaking out the champagne.
Henry -- I think that some skepticism is warranted. No champagne. That's one reason why Peace Now announced today a greater emphasis on the Settlement Watch program.
At the same time, this could be an opportunity to move forward and it should not be dismissed prematurely.
Another big question is the Israeli public. Does it really want peace or are the majority of Israelis numbed by constant war and death that they cannot envision Peace?
My cousin, who lives in a "settlement" inside the Green Line, told me that Gilo is also inside the Green Line and, therefore not considered by her and other Israelis to be part of the West Bank. Is this correct? What is the view of Peace Now regarding this area?
Jerry -- I guess it depends on what you mean by "inside." The Green Line is the boundary established by the 1949 armistice agreement. The area west of it falls under Israeli sovereignty; the area east of it was under Jordanian control until 1967 and is the West Bank.
Gilo lies east of the Green Line. But it is in an area that Israel treats differently from the rest of the West Bank. In 1967 Israel expanded the borders of Jerusalem to incorporate a part of the West Bank. That area is generally termed East Jerusalem. Gilo is in that zone.
Semantics and history aside, the fate of West Bank settlements and the future of East Jerusalem need to be determined in negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians.